Primes in Short Intervals: Heuristics and Calculations

We formulate, using heuristic reasoning, precise conjectures for the range of the number of primes in intervals of length $y$ around $x$, where $y\ll (\log x)^2$. In particular we conjecture that the maximum grows surprisingly slowly as $y$ ranges from $\log x$ to $(\log x)^2$. We will show that our conjectures are somewhat supported by available data, though not so well that there may not be room for some modification.

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