A method for acquiring multiple windfarms capacity credit on Copula function

The present invention discloses a method for obtaining multiple windfarms capacity credit on Copula function, comprising: a flow effects of Wind farm tail wind speed time series to convert wind farm output time series, numerical values ​​according to the state of the merged sequence , then fitting the nonlinear single wind farm output an edge profile; selecting a fat tail characteristics described Clayton Copula function describes the correlation between each of the wind power output, the wind farm based on historical data output, a two-stage pole maximum likelihood estimation method selected Copula parameter estimation function, to obtain parameters of multiple windfarms joint probability distribution of the output; the output based on the joint probability of multiple windfarms Clayton Copula distribution function is equivalent to the power generation system incorporating a multi-state machine , based on criteria such as reliability, cut string using an iterative method to obtain wind farm capacity credit. The present invention is fast, accurate and can better assess the significance of the wind power system reliability, economy and reduce environmental pollution and other aspects.