A methodology for the assessment of the effect of climate change on the thermal-strain–stress behaviour of structures

Abstract Thermal loads can cause significant stresses in some structures such as bridges or arch dams. Studies in arch dams show that thermal loads have the most significant effect for causing cracking than other service loads. Moreover, since researches on climate change announce that mean temperature on Earth is expected to increase, the assessment of the impact of the future temperature increase on the structural behaviour of sensitive infrastructures should be considered. This paper proposes a methodology for the assessment of the impacts of global warming on the structural behaviour of infrastructures. The paper links future climate scenarios to the thermal, stress and displacement fields of the structure. The methodology is illustrated with a case study: La Baells arch-dam. The expected stress and displacement fields of the dam under several future climatic scenarios were computed by finite element models. Concrete temperature are expected to increase up to 5.6 K, which will make annual average radial displacements increase in some cases even more than 100%. Tensile stresses are also projected to change and should be adequately monitored in the future. Finally, several adaptation strategies are outlined.

[1]  Feng Jin,et al.  Practical procedure for predicting non-uniform temperature on the exposed face of arch dams , 2010 .

[2]  Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga,et al.  Influence of weather and global warming in chloride ingress into concrete: A stochastic approach , 2010 .

[3]  D. J. Vicente,et al.  Treatment of Solar Radiation by Spatial and Temporal Discretization for Modeling the Thermal Response of Arch Dams , 2014 .

[4]  C. H. Sanders,et al.  UK adaptation strategy and technical measures: the impacts of climate change on buildings , 2003 .

[5]  J. Palutikof,et al.  Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability , 2001 .

[6]  W. Beckman,et al.  Evaluation of hourly tilted surface radiation models , 1990 .

[7]  Chris Hewitt,et al.  Ensembles-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts , 2004 .

[8]  José Sá da Costa,et al.  Constructing statistical models for arch dam deformation , 2014 .

[9]  Alexei G. Sankovski,et al.  Special report on emissions scenarios : a special report of Working group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2000 .

[10]  Zdenek P. Bazant,et al.  Prediction of Concrete Creep Effects Using Age-Adjusted Effective Modulus Method , 1972 .

[11]  W. Collins,et al.  Global climate projections , 2007 .

[12]  K. Nishijima,et al.  Climate model-based probabilistic assessment of wind risk for residential buildings under projected future climate , 2014 .

[13]  Lee Chapman,et al.  Climate change and the railway industry: A review , 2010 .

[14]  Frank P. Incropera,et al.  Fundamentals of Heat and Mass Transfer , 1981 .

[15]  Prashant Kumar,et al.  Footprints of air pollution and changing environment on the sustainability of built infrastructure. , 2013, The Science of the total environment.

[16]  H. Kambezidis,et al.  DIFFUSE SOLAR IRRADIATION MODEL EVALUATION IN THE NORTH MEDITERRANEAN BELT AREA , 2001 .

[17]  M. Díez-Mediavilla,et al.  Measurement and comparison of diffuse solar irradiance models on inclined surfaces in Valladolid (Spain) , 2005 .

[18]  D. Clark,et al.  Measurement of night sky emissivity in determining radiant cooling from cool storage roofs and roof ponds , 1995 .

[19]  Mohsen Ghaemian,et al.  Effects of Environmental Action on Thermal Stress Analysis of Karaj Concrete Arch Dam , 2006 .

[20]  Risk assessment and decision-making for residential housing adapting to increasing storm-tide inundation due to sea-level rise in South East Queensland, Australia , 2014 .

[21]  Franck Schoefs,et al.  Influence of global warming on durability of corroding RC structures: A probabilistic approach , 2013 .

[22]  Mark G. Stewart,et al.  Climate change adaptation for corrosion control of concrete infrastructure , 2012 .

[23]  Enrique Mirambell,et al.  Temperature and Stress Distributions in Concrete Box Girder Bridges , 1990 .

[24]  Mark G. Stewart,et al.  Impact of climate change on corrosion and damage to concrete infrastructure in Australia , 2012, Climatic Change.

[25]  H. Manz,et al.  Empirical validation of models to compute solar irradiance on inclined surfaces for building energy simulation , 2007 .

[26]  Luc Taerwe,et al.  fib model code for concrete structures 2010 , 2013 .

[27]  P. Léger,et al.  Hydrostatic, Temperature, Time-Displacement Model for Concrete Dams , 2007 .

[28]  T. Micic,et al.  An adaptive methodology for risk classification of small homogeneous earthfill embankment dams integrating climate change projections , 2014 .

[29]  Z. Bažant,et al.  Creep and shrinkage prediction model for analysis and design of concrete structures-model B3 , 1995 .

[30]  Franck Schoefs,et al.  Effects of climate variations and global warming on the durability of RC structures subjected to carbonation , 2014 .

[31]  Farid Benboudjema,et al.  Effects of early-age thermal behaviour on damage risks in massive concrete structures , 2012 .

[32]  C. Gueymard.  Monthly Averages of the Daily Effective Optical Air Mass and Solar Related Angles for Horizontal or Inclined Surfaces , 1986 .

[33]  Lukas H. Meyer,et al.  Summary for Policymakers , 2022, The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.

[34]  J. Mata,et al.  Interpretation of concrete dam behaviour with artificial neural network and multiple linear regression models , 2011 .

[35]  A. C Cleland,et al.  Prediction of chilling times of foods in situations where evaporative cooling is significant—Part 1. Method development , 1998 .

[36]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis , 2013 .

[37]  Roger Jones,et al.  Regional climate projections , 2007 .

[38]  P. van Thienen,et al.  Modelling the effect of climate change induced soil settling on drinking water distribution pipes. , 2014 .

[39]  M. Lawrence.  The relationship between relative humidity and the dewpoint temperature in moist air - A simple conversion and applications , 2005 .

[40]  Antonio Aguado,et al.  A model for the analysis of concrete dams due to environmental thermal effects , 1996 .

[41]  C. Tebaldi,et al.  Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility , 2013 .

[42]  Mark G. Stewart,et al.  Climate change and corrosion damage risks for reinforced concrete infrastructure in China , 2016 .

[43]  G. Kamali,et al.  Evaluation of 12 models to estimate hourly diffuse irradiation on inclined surfaces , 2008 .

[44]  T. Engen-Skaugen,et al.  Refinement of dynamically downscaled precipitation and temperature scenarios , 2007 .

[45]  David Santillán,et al.  An improved 1D-model for computing the thermal behaviour of concrete dams during operation. Comparison with other approaches , 2015 .

[46]  N. J. Gardner,et al.  Design Provisions for Drying Shrinkage and Creep of Normal-Strength Concrete , 2001 .

[47]  Kurt Douglas,et al.  The shear strength of rock masses , 2002 .

[48]  J. H. Kim,et al.  A study on thermal behaviour of curved steel box girder bridges considering solar radiation , 2009 .

[49]  A. C Cleland,et al.  Prediction of chilling times of foods in situations where evaporative cooling is significant : Part 2. Experimental testing , 1998 .

[50]  J.M.G. Sá da Costa,et al.  Time–frequency analysis for concrete dam safety control: Correlation between the daily variation of structural response and air temperature , 2013 .