Using digital technologies to deliver scenarios to geographically dispersed stakeholders: Lessons learned from the transportation sector

When scenarios are utilised in strategy development exercises, they are typically conducted in workshops that often take a day or more to execute, and require extensive planning to prepare and assemble a group of participants in a single location. In this paper, we explore the application of digital technologies to engage more efficiently a variety of stakeholders from the transportation domain in scenario-based activities. Several participants in the research project were selected to reflect via semi-structured interviews on the online approach and describe their experience. The findings suggest that the application of digital technologies to deliver scenarios and solicit feedback from exercise participants was mostly successful. These results accordingly show that online delivery models offer the potential for deep engagement with a range of scenario stakeholders, thereby making it possible for would-be users of scenarios to include participants who are not in the same geographic location.

[1]  Ahti Salo,et al.  Forecasting with scenarios , 1993 .

[2]  Wayne F. Cascio,et al.  Managing a virtual workplace , 2000 .

[3]  Johannes Gabriel,et al.  Three scenarios for EU-China relations 2025 , 2017 .

[4]  Agnes Kukulska-Hulme,et al.  Mobile learning: a handbook for educators and trainers , 2005 .

[5]  Catherine C. Marshall,et al.  Designing Qualitative Research , 1996 .

[6]  Richard T. Watson,et al.  Task-technology fit for mobile locatable information systems , 2008, Decis. Support Syst..

[7]  George Cairns,et al.  ‘Branching scenarios’ seeking articulated action for regional regeneration – A case study of limited success , 2017 .

[8]  Stefan Gray,et al.  Strengthening coastal adaptation planning through scenario analysis: A beneficial but incomplete solution , 2016 .

[9]  Riccardo Vecchiato,et al.  Scenario planning, cognition, and strategic investment decisions in a turbulent environment , 2019, Long Range Planning.

[10]  Margaret Tan,et al.  The virtual workplace , 1998 .

[11]  Gregory P. Krätzig,et al.  Perceptual learning style and learning proficiency: A test of the hypothesis. , 2006 .

[12]  Jon Sundbo.  Food scenarios 2025: Drivers of change between global and regional , 2016 .

[13]  Fabrice Roubelat,et al.  Scenario Planning as a Networking Process , 2000 .

[14]  Lynda Gratton,et al.  The Third Wave Of Virtual Work. , 2013 .

[15]  George Wright,et al.  Scenario Thinking: Practical Approaches to the Future , 2011 .

[16]  John Robinson,et al.  The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis , 2004 .

[17]  G. DeSanctis,et al.  Electronic Communication and Changing Organizational Forms , 1995 .

[18]  E. Masini,et al.  Why Futures Studies , 1993 .

[19]  V. Braun,et al.  Using thematic analysis in psychology , 2006 .

[20]  Lutz E. Schlange.  Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation , 1997 .

[21]  Bernard R. Robin.  Digital Storytelling: A Powerful Technology Tool for the 21st Century Classroom , 2008 .

[22]  Jane M. Howell,et al.  Personal Computing: Toward a Conceptual Model of Utilization , 1991, MIS Q..

[23]  George Wright,et al.  The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning , 2005 .

[24]  Shu-Sheng Liaw,et al.  An investigation of user attitudes toward search engines as an information retrieval tool , 2003, Comput. Hum. Behav..

[25]  M. Prensky.  Digital Natives, Digital Immigrants , 2001 .

[26]  P. Schoemaker.  Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking , 1995 .

[27]  Richard L. Priem,et al.  The new corporate architecture , 1995 .

[28]  George Cairns,et al.  The Role of Scenario Planning in Exploring the Environment in View of the Limitations of PEST and Its Derivatives , 2006 .

[29]  Simon Washington,et al.  Projected prevalence of car-sharing in four Asian-Pacific countries in 2030: What the experts think , 2017 .

[30]  Beverly Y Thompson,et al.  The Digital Nomad Lifestyle: (Remote) Work/Leisure Balance, Privilege, and Constructed Community , 2018, International Journal of the Sociology of Leisure.

[31]  M. Godet,et al.  Creating the future: The use and misuse of scenarios , 1996 .

[32]  Max Boisot,et al.  Crossing epistemological boundaries: Managerial and entrepreneurial approaches to knowledge management , 2004 .

[33]  John Sandars,et al.  Twelve Tips on usability testing to develop effective e-learning in medical education , 2010, Medical teacher.

[34]  Deepak Khazanchi,et al.  From Profiles to Patterns: A New View of Task-Technology Fit , 2008, Inf. Syst. Manag..

[35]  Henry S. Merrill.  Best Practices for Online Facilitation , 2003 .

[36]  Steven P. Schnaars.  How to develop and use scenarios , 1987 .

[37]  Jane E. Klobas,et al.  A task-technology fit view of learning management system impact , 2009, Comput. Educ..

[38]  Angela Christiansen,et al.  Storytelling and professional learning: a phenomenographic study of students' experience of patient digital stories in nurse education. , 2011, Nurse education today.

[39]  R. Mayer,et al.  Nine Ways to Reduce Cognitive Load in Multimedia Learning , 2003 .

[40]  Kevin G. Corley,et al.  Seeking Qualitative Rigor in Inductive Research , 2013 .

[41]  Leslie A. DeChurch,et al.  Information sharing and team performance: a meta-analysis. , 2009, The Journal of applied psychology.

[42]  Barry Fishman,et al.  Examining the Roles of the Facilitator in Online and Face-to-Face Professional Development Contexts , 2013 .

[43]  Sheng Kuan Chung.  Art Education Technology: Digital Storytelling , 2007 .

[44]  Johannes C. Cronjé,et al.  Defining Mobile Learning in the Higher Education Landscape , 2010, J. Educ. Technol. Soc..

[45]  Frances A. O'Brien,et al.  Scenario planning - lessons for practice from teaching and learning , 2004, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[46]  P. Vergragt,et al.  Past and future of backcasting: The shift to stakeholder participation and a proposal for a methodological framework , 2006 .

[47]  Richard E. Mayer,et al.  Multimedia Learning , 2001, Visible Learning Guide to Student Achievement.

[48]  Jib Fowles,et al.  Handbook of Futures Research , 1978 .

[49]  H. Rubin,et al.  Qualitative Interviewing: The Art of Hearing Data , 1995 .

[50]  R. Mayer,et al.  Aids to computer-based multimedia learning , 2002 .

[51]  R. Mayer,et al.  Testing the ATI hypothesis: Should multimedia instruction accommodate verbalizer-visualizer cognitive style? ! , 2006 .

[52]  B. Berg.  Qualitative Research Methods for the Social Sciences , 1989 .

[53]  Patricia Dexter,et al.  Ascertaining a hierarchy of dimensions from time-poor experts linking tactical vignettes to strategic scenarios / , 2013 .

[54]  Curtis A. Carver,et al.  Enhancing student learning through hypermedia courseware and incorporation of student learning styles , 1999 .

[55]  V. Midoro.  For a new teacher , 2005 .

[56]  George Cairns,et al.  Promoting articulated action from diverse stakeholders in response to public policy scenarios: A case analysis of the use of 'scenario improvisation' method , 2016 .

[57]  Arthur C. Graesser,et al.  Computer-Mediated Technologies , 2007 .

[58]  M. Patton.  Qualitative research and evaluation methods , 1980 .

[59]  C. Dede,et al.  A Research Agenda for Online Teacher Professional Development , 2009 .

[60]  R. Mayer,et al.  For whom is a picture worth a thousand words? Extensions of a dual-coding theory of multimedia learning. , 1994 .

[61]  R. Yin.  Case Study Research: Design and Methods , 1984 .

[62]  Sally Maitlis,et al.  Non-participant observation , 2010 .

[63]  George Cairns,et al.  Does the intuitive logics method – and its recent enhancements – produce “effective” scenarios? , 2013 .

[64]  Christopher Murray,et al.  Twelve tips for using digital storytelling to promote reflective learning by medical students , 2008, Medical teacher.

[65]  Dale L. Goodhue,et al.  Development and Measurement Validity of a Task-Technology Fit Instrument for User Evaluations of Inf , 1998 .

[66]  Steve Sawyer,et al.  Personalization of knowledge, personal knowledge ecology, and digital nomadism , 2019, J. Assoc. Inf. Sci. Technol..

[67]  R. Mayer.  Applying the science of learning: evidence-based principles for the design of multimedia instruction. , 2008, The American psychologist.

[68]  R. Kozma.  Reflections on the state of educational technology research and development , 2000 .

[69]  Gill Ringland,et al.  Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future , 1998 .

[70]  Theo J.B.M. Postma,et al.  How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool , 2005 .

[71]  Simon Washington,et al.  Thinking together about the future when you are not together: The effectiveness of using developed scenarios among geographically distributed groups , 2018, Technological Forecasting and Social Change.

[72]  Peter Goodyear,et al.  Flexible Learning and the Architecture of Learning Places , 2007 .

[73]  P. McKiernan,et al.  Storytelling and the scenario process : understanding success and failure , 2013 .

[74]  M. V. Asselt,et al.  An updated scenario typology , 2003 .

[75]  R. Dunn.  Learning Style and its Relation to Exceptionality at Both Ends of the Spectrum , 1983, Exceptional children.

[76]  Clare Harries,et al.  Correspondence to what? Coherence to what? What is good scenario-based decision making? , 2003 .

[77]  W. Huss,et al.  Scenario planning—What style should you use? , 1987 .

[78]  Rochell R. McWhorter,et al.  An Initial Conceptualization of Virtual Scenario Planning , 2014 .

[79]  M. Haas,et al.  Which Problems to Solve? Online Knowledge Sharing and Attention Allocation in Organizations , 2014 .

[80]  David W. Macdonald,et al.  Securing the future of the natural environment: using scenarios to anticipate challenges to biodiversity, landscapes and public engagement with nature , 2011 .

[81]  P. Cornelius,et al.  Three Decades of Scenario Planning in Shell , 2005 .

[82]  Jan Oliver Schwarz,et al.  Combining scenario planning and business wargaming to better anticipate future competitive dynamics , 2019, Futures.

[83]  R. Emerson,et al.  Writing Ethnographic Fieldnotes , 1995 .

[84]  George Wright,et al.  Exploring e-government futures through the application of scenario planning , 2004 .

[85]  Dale Goodhue,et al.  Task-Technology Fit and Individual Performance , 1995, MIS Q..

[86]  Anthony R. Hendrickson,et al.  Virtual teams: Technology and the workplace of the future , 1998 .

[87]  M. V. Asselt,et al.  Visions for a sustainable Europe , 2000 .

[88]  Peter Schwartz,et al.  The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World , 1996 .

[89]  Maureen Meadows,et al.  Scenario orientation and use to support strategy development , 2013 .

[90]  William Wresch,et al.  Research in online and blended learning in the business disciplines: Key findings and possible future directions , 2009, Internet High. Educ..

[91]  N. Yee,et al.  The Digital Workforce and the Workplace of the Future , 2016 .

[92]  Michel Godet,et al.  The Art of Scenarios and Strategic Planning - Tools and Pitfalls , 2000 .

[93]  Weichung Wang,et al.  Applying a multimedia storytelling website in foreign language learning , 2006, Comput. Educ..

[94]  R. Ramírez.  Scenarios that Provide Clarity in Addressing Turbulence , 2012 .

[95]  Warren E. Watson,et al.  Cultural diversity''s impact on interaction process and performance: Comparing homogeneous and diver , 1993 .