Numeracy, frequency, and Bayesian reasoning

Previous research has demonstrated that Bayesian reasoning performance is improved if uncertainty information is presented as natural frequencies rather than single-event probabilities. A questionnaire study of 342 college students replicated this effect but also found that the performance-boosting benefits of the natural frequency presentation occurred primarily for participants who scored high in numeracy. This finding suggests that even comprehension and manipulation of natural frequencies requires a certain threshold of numeracy abilities, and that the beneficial effects of natural frequency presentation may not be as general as previously believed.

[1]  Charles J. Brainerd,et al.  The importance of mathematics in health and human judgment: Numeracy, risk communication, and medical decision making , 2007 .

[2]  Gary L. Brase,et al.  Frequency interpretation of ambiguous statistical information facilitates Bayesian reasoning , 2008, Psychonomic bulletin & review.

[3]  S. Sloman,et al.  Base-rate respect: From ecological rationality to dual processes. , 2007, The Behavioral and brain sciences.

[4]  Gary L. Brase.  Pictorial representations in statistical reasoning , 2009 .

[5]  V. Reyna,et al.  Numeracy, Ratio Bias, and Denominator Neglect in Judgments of Risk and Probability. , 2008 .

[6]  B. Rimer,et al.  General Performance on a Numeracy Scale among Highly Educated Samples , 2001, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[7]  C. K. Mertz,et al.  Less Is More in Presenting Quality Information to Consumers , 2007, Medical care research and review : MCRR.

[8]  Jonathan Baron,et al.  The Effect of Numerical Statements of Risk on Trust and Comfort with Hypothetical Physician Risk Communication , 2004, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[9]  Gerd Gigerenzer,et al.  How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning Without Instruction: Frequency Formats , 1995 .

[10]  C. K. Mertz,et al.  PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE Research Article Numeracy and Decision Making , 2022 .

[11]  Peter Salmon,et al.  Health professionals' and service users' interpretation of screening test results: experimental study , 2006, BMJ : British Medical Journal.