An Analysis of Alternative Mideastern Oil Agreements.

Abstract : This report describes an application of prescriptive decision analysis to a problem of choosing between alternative U.S. foreign policy options. More specifically, the choice relates to possible agreements with a Mideastern country which involve different degrees of U.S. political and economic concessions in return for improved prospects for the supply of oil to the U.S. The analysis described in this report involved the development and use of a flexible decision model to evaluate three sharply different negotiating strategies regarding a possible agreement with a Mideastern country. A baseline option involved no change now or later in U.S. policies toward this Mideastern country and was used primarily as a reference point for purposes of comparison. A maximum option involved an agreement which went most of the way toward what certain Mideastern countries want. The third option was an intermediate strategy reflecting a moderate change in U.S. policy which would be attractive to the Mideastern country, but not politically difficult for the U.S.