A review of cost estimation models for determining assembly automation level

The importance of early phase cost estimation is presented and argued.Most appropriate literature cost models to the issue are identified and reviewed.The suitability of literature cost models is assessed and discussed.Relevant cost drivers are identified.A cost estimation outline is proposed to support assembly cost prediction. The aim of this research is to support early phase cost estimation for assembly systems design and automation decision. During this phase, various alternatives of assembly systems with different automation levels can be generated. The alternatives generation is performed using available information on product design, assembly sequences, and planned production information. The issue is to assess given alternatives, identify, and opt for the most appropriate one. Several criteria have to be considered in this decision. The economic aspect represents one of the most preponderant, including cost and profitability prediction. The importance and challenges of this complex issue are highlighted in this paper with feedbacks from manufacturers and the literature. The literature in the field is reviewed, presented, and analyzed. For this sake, a selection of cost models is performed covering a wide chronological range, journals, and fields including assembly and manufacturing models. Classification techniques of cost estimation works are presented and exploited in the proposed review. It is used to filter and discuss models suitability for the defined assembly automation decision issue. The most appropriate models are more thoroughly reviewed and discussed. Useful literature costing techniques, features, and relevant cost drivers are also identified. They cover multiple aspects as production information, resources features or performances. Finally, the review findings are illustrated by a cost estimation outline proposal to support early phase cost prediction for assembly systems design and automation decision.

[1]  Sheng-Hsien Gary Teng,et al.  Manufacturing cost modeling in printing wiring board assembly , 1998 .

[2]  J. Ciurana,et al.  Cost estimation support tool for vertical high speed machines based on product characteristics and productivity requirements , 2011 .

[3]  Harold Bright Maynard,et al.  Methods-time measurement , 1948 .

[4]  Fariborz Tayyari,et al.  A Totally Integrated Manufacturing Cost Estimating System (TIMCES) , 1992 .

[5]  Ayse Basar Bener,et al.  Feature weighting heuristics for analogy-based effort estimation models , 2009, Expert Syst. Appl..

[6]  Essam Shehab,et al.  Detailed cost estimating in the automotive industry: Data and information requirements , 2011 .

[7]  Amy J. C. Trappey,et al.  A sequential block approach to the design of a cost estimation system , 1992 .

[8]  G. Boothroyd.  Design for assembly—The key to design for manufacture , 1987 .

[9]  Kim LaScola Needy,et al.  A cost model for the evaluation of alternative cellular manufacturing configurations , 1998 .

[10]  Joshua D. Summers,et al.  Deciding the level of automation during the design of assembly systems , 2015 .

[11]  Hassan Abdalla,et al.  An object-oriented constraints-based system for concurrent product development , 1999 .

[12]  Jong-Yun Jung,et al.  Manufacturing cost estimation for machined parts based on manufacturing features , 2002, J. Intell. Manuf..

[13]  N. Jha.  Probabilistic cost estimation in advance of production in a computerized manufacturing system through stochastic geometric programming , 1996 .

[14]  Lisanne Bainbridge,et al.  Ironies of automation , 1982, Autom..

[15]  Sergio Cavalieri,et al.  Parametric vs. neural network models for the estimation of production costs: A case study in the automotive industry , 2004 .

[16]  Julian D Booker,et al.  Manufacturing Process Selection Handbook , 2013 .

[17]  David A. Koonce,et al.  A hierarchical cost estimation tool , 2003, Comput. Ind..

[18]  Carin Andersson,et al.  A cost model for determining an optimal automation level in discrete batch manufacturing , 2012 .

[19]  Nand K. Jha.  Stochastic mathematical modelling and manufacturing cost estimation in uncertain industrial environment , 1992 .

[20]  Jürgen Bode,et al.  Multi-agent system for cost estimation , 1996 .

[21]  Alexander Layer,et al.  Recent and future trends in cost estimation , 2002, Int. J. Comput. Integr. Manuf..

[22]  Bengt Lennartson,et al.  Sequence Planning Using Multiple and Coordinated Sequences of Operations , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Automation Science and Engineering.

[23]  Amos H. C. Ng,et al.  Multi-objective Production Systems Optimisation with Investment and Running Cost , 2011, Multi-objective Evolutionary Optimisation for Product Design and Manufacturing.

[24]  Oliver Wessel,et al.  Optimal Level of Automation in the Automotive Industry , 2008, Eng. Lett..

[25]  Joshua D. Summers,et al.  A modelling language for assembly sequences representation, scheduling and analyses , 2014 .

[26]  Robert C. Creese,et al.  Estimating and Costing for the Metal Manufacturing Industries , 1992 .

[27]  M. Dohnal,et al.  Fuzzy approach to factorial cost estimation of chemical plants , 1984 .

[28]  G. Boothroyd,et al.  Early cost estimating in product design , 1988 .

[29]  Essam Shehab,et al.  A design to cost system for innovative product development , 2002 .

[30]  C. Ou-Yang,et al.  Developing an integrated framework for feature-based early manufacturing cost estimation , 1997 .

[31]  Ulrich von Beck,et al.  The merger of discrete event simulation with activity based costing for cost estimation in manufacturing environments , 2000, 2000 Winter Simulation Conference Proceedings (Cat. No.00CH37165).

[32]  Jörg Franke,et al.  A Method for Forecasting the Running Costs of Manufacturing Technologies in Automotive Production during the Early Planning Phase , 2015 .

[33]  Gunter Lay,et al.  Sackgasse Hochautomatisierung? Praxis des Abbaus von Overengineering in der Produktion , 2001 .

[34]  Joshua D. Summers,et al.  Assembly Modelling and Time estimating during the early phase of Assembly Systems Design , 2015 .

[35]  Young K. Son,et al.  A cost estimation model for advanced manufacturing systems , 1991 .

[36]  Amos H. C. Ng,et al.  Industrial cost modelling and multi-objective optimisation for decision support in production systems development , 2013, Comput. Ind. Eng..

[37]  François Vernadat,et al.  Cost estimation in mechanical production: The Cost Entity approach applied to integrated product engineering , 2006 .

[38]  Johan Stahre,et al.  The industry´s view on automation in manufacturing , 2006 .

[39]  J. M. Castelain,et al.  Cost Estimation During Design Step: Parametric Method versus Case Based Reasoning Method , 1999 .

[40]  Jian S. Dai,et al.  Product Cost Estimation: Technique Classification and Methodology Review , 2006 .

[41]  Mathias Jönsson,et al.  Relations between volume flexibility and part cost in assembly lines , 2011 .

[42]  J. Månson,et al.  An integrated cost and consolidation model for commingled yarn based composites , 2002 .

[43]  H.J.J. Kals,et al.  Cost Decision Support in Product Design , 1997 .

[44]  G. Boothroyd.  Economics of General-Purpose Assembly Robots , 1984 .

[45]  Khim L. Sim,et al.  An empirical examination of successive incremental improvement techniques and investment in manufacturing technology , 2001 .

[46]  Christopher D. Wickens,et al.  A model for types and levels of human interaction with automation , 2000, IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. Part A.

[47]  Ebrahim Shayan,et al.  Cost estimation in flat plate processing using fuzzy sets , 1999 .

[48]  Jerry Y. H. Fuh,et al.  A neural network approach for early cost estimation of packaging products , 1998 .

[49]  W. T. Chan,et al.  Feature-based cost estimation for packaging products using neural networks , 1996 .

[50]  Avraham Shtub,et al.  Model for cost estimation in a finite-capacity stochastic environment based on shop floor optimization combined with simulation , 2009, Eur. J. Oper. Res..