Population movement, marriage, and fertility change.

Data on population movement, marriage, and fertility change in China are presented to provide an explanation for the information available, to examine the relationships with existing data and available research, and to evaluate current research accomplishments and make recommendations to clarify existing problems. The focus is on China's floating population. Current legal migration movement provincially or interprovincially amounts to 2%/year. The daily legal floating population has increased from 50,000/day to 50 million/day in 1988, primarily for work. This transient population may constitute as much as 10% of the legal resident population in some large cities. Another population is the traffic population, which returns home in a short period of time. One estimate of the traffic population in Tianjin reports 13% of the floating population as traffic. The 3rd population group moving is domestic migrants complying with residence permit regulations. The numbers have risen for all these groups, but precise figures for the floating and traffic population are difficult to determine. The concern is that women moving will exceed the fertility quota. Statistics are provided from selected studies to reveal the patterns of fertility and floating population movement. Most (around 50-60%) of the floating population are 15-29 years and women tend to migrate to large cities and towns. Specific fertility rates of 30-39 year olds in-migrants are higher than nonfloating women of the same age, but the 1% Sample Survey results state that fertility among in-migrants is lower than among farmers. Inferences made and limiting data definitions and omissions suggest that accurate and comprehensive evaluation is needed. Data are provided and discussed on the % of 1986 single and married women by age, residence status (very large cities, large cities, medium-sized cities, small cities, and towns), and current urban residence (residents, migrants, transients). Other data provided and discussed include the 1986 % of migrants and residents by age, number of children, and residence status. The tables show mothers 25 years with 4 children and questions are raised as to where they came from, what age they left home, and how long was the stay. 1 study suggests that higher migrant fertility is actually equivalent to fertility in areas women are migrating from. The statistics do not answer all questions.