PAST AND FUTURE GRAIN TRAFFIC ON THE MISSOURI RIVER

Steve Swanson's grain farm in Page County, Iowa, is about 40-miles east of a barge-loading terminal on the Missouri River at Nebraska City, Nebraska. This 40-mile distance is within the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' (Corps) estimated 45-mile competitive range for corn shipped by barge on the Missouri River. Steve has never sold grain to the barge loading terminal at Nebraska City because he could always obtain higher net prices for his corn and soybeans elsewhere. In recent years, he has sold all of his corn and soybeans to his local elevator, which loads 27-car unit-trains on the BNSF railroad. This paper concludes that (1) commercial barge traffic has been declining on the Missouri River since 1977; (2) wheat shipments, over one-third of all commercial traffic on the Missouri River in 1979, have almost disappeared (3)the reasons for these dramatic declines in Missouri River barge traffic are reduced wheat production, a highly competitive railroad system, high Missouri River barge costs, and rapidly growing local and domestic markets; (4) here is little reason to believe that these trends will be reversed on a long-term basis; (5) he public cost of providing navigation on the Missouri River exceeds the benefits to shippers; and (6) an open public debate is needed to evaluate alternative navigation investment strategies on the Missouri River and other low-volume rivers. Farmers like Steve Swanson need to be involved in these debates.