Climate‐related differences in the dominance of submerged macrophytes in shallow lakes

It has been suggested that shallow lakes in warm climates have a higher probability of being turbid, rather than macrophyte dominated, compared with lakes in cooler climates, but little field evidence exists to evaluate this hypothesis. We analyzed data from 782 lake years in different climate zones in North America, South America, and Europe. We tested if systematic differences exist in the relationship between the abundance of submerged macrophytes and environmental factors such as lake depth and nutrient levels. In the pooled dataset the proportion of lakes with substantial submerged macrophyte coverage (430% of the lake area) decreased in a sigmoidal way with increasing total phosphorus (TP) concentration, falling most steeply between 0.05 and 0.2mgL � 1 . Substantial submerged macrophyte coverage was also rare in lakes with total nitrogen (TN) concentrations above 1‐2mgL � 1 , except for lakes with very low TP concentrations where macrophytes remain abundant until higher TN concentrations. The deviance reduction of logistic regression models predicting macrophyte coverage from nutrients and water depth was generally low, and notably lowest in tropical and subtropical regions (Brazil, Uruguay, and Florida), suggesting that macrophyte coverage was strongly influenced by other factors. The maximum TP concentration allowing substantial submerged macrophyte coverage was clearly higher in cold regions with more frost days. This is in agreement with other studies which found a large influence of ice cover duration on shallow lakes’ ecology through partial fish kills that may improve light conditions for submerged macrophytes by cascading effects on periphyton and phytoplankton. Our findings suggest that, in regions where climatic warming is projected to lead to fewer frost days, macrophyte cover will decrease unless the nutrient levels are lowered.

[1]  Erik Jeppesen,et al.  Shallow lake restoration by nutrient loading reduction—some recent findings and challenges ahead , 2007 .

[2]  C. Sayer,et al.  DOES THE FISH-INVERTEBRATE-PERIPHYTON CASCADE PRECIPITATE PLANT LOSS IN SHALLOW LAKES? , 2003 .

[3]  M. Mjelde,et al.  Ceratophyllum demersum hampers phytoplankton development in some small Norwegian lakes over a wide range of phosphorus concentrations and geographical latitude , 1997 .

[4]  T. V. Madsen,et al.  Growth limitation of submerged aquatic macrophytes by inorganic carbon , 1995 .

[5]  L. Hansson,et al.  Shifts between clear and turbid states in a shallow lake: multi-causal stress from climate, nutrients and biotic interactions , 2004 .

[6]  An Empirical Method for Characterizing Standing Crops of Aquatic Vegetation 1 , 1990 .

[7]  H. Toivonen,et al.  Aquatic macrophytes and ecological gradients in 57 small lakes in southern Finland , 1995 .

[8]  Erik Jeppesen,et al.  Can warm climate‐related structure of littoral predator assemblies weaken the clear water state in shallow lakes? , 2007 .

[9]  J. Eaton,et al.  Effects of simulated climate warming on macrophytes in freshwater microcosm communities , 2002 .

[10]  Erik Jeppesen,et al.  Does high nitrogen loading prevent clear-water conditions in shallow lakes at moderately high phosphorus concentrations? , 2005 .

[11]  Maria Rosa Miracle,et al.  Mesocosm experiments on nutrient and fish effects on shallow lake food webs in a Mediterranean climate , 2004 .

[12]  L. Meester,et al.  Interclonal variation in diel horizontal migration behaviour of the water flea Daphnia magna—searching for a signature of adaptive evolution , 2007, Hydrobiologia.

[13]  P. McCullagh,et al.  Generalized Linear Models , 1992 .

[14]  M. Scheffer.  Ecology of Shallow Lakes , 1997, Population and Community Biology Series.

[15]  C. Brönmark,et al.  Indirect effects of fish community structure on submerged vegetation in shallow, eutrophic lakes: an alternative mechanism , 1992, Hydrobiologia.

[16]  L. Carvalho,et al.  Determination of phytoplankton crops by top-down and bottom-up mechanisms in a group of English lakes, the West Midland meres , 1994 .

[17]  Restoration of shallow lakes by nutrient control and biomanipulation—the successful strategy varies with lake size and climate , 2007 .

[18]  Irena F. Creed,et al.  Frequent regime shifts in trophic states in shallow lakes on the Boreal Plain: Alternative "unstable" states? , 2007 .

[19]  Fish manipulation as a lake restoration tool in shallow, eutrophic, temperate lakes 2: threshold levels, long-term stability and conclusions , 1990 .

[20]  S. Sheldon.  More on Freshwater Snail Herbivory: A Reply to BrÖnmark , 1990 .

[21]  Erik Jeppesen,et al.  The role of climate in shaping zooplankton communities of shallow lakes , 2005 .

[22]  S. Sheldon.  The Effects of Herbivorous Snails on Submerged Macrophyte Communities in Minnesota Lakes. , 1987, Ecology.

[23]  E. Jeppesen,et al.  A comparison of shallow Danish and Canadian lakes and implications of climate change , 2007 .

[24]  J. Barko,et al.  Comparative Influences of Light and Temperature on the Growth and Metabolism of Selected Submersed Freshwater Macrophytes , 1981 .

[25]  M. Scheffer,et al.  Distribution and dynamics of submerged vegetation in a chain of shallow eutrophic lakes , 1992 .

[26]  Mark V. Hoyer,et al.  Relations between trophic state indicators and plant biomass in Florida lakes , 2002, Hydrobiologia.

[27]  B. Moss,et al.  Prevention of growth of potentially dense phytoplankton populations by zooplankton grazing, in the presence of zooplanktivorous fish, in a shallow wetland ecosystem , 1984 .

[28]  Ole Vestergaard,et al.  Macrophyte decline in Danish lakes and streams over the past 100 years , 2000 .

[29]  G. Andersson,et al.  Long-term Patterns of Shifts between Clear and Turbid States in Lake Krankesjön and Lake Tåkern , 2007, Ecosystems.

[30]  M. J. Maceina,et al.  The use of recording fathometer for determination of distribution and biomass of hydrilla. , 1980 .

[31]  M. Scheffer,et al.  Vegetation abundance in lowland flood plan lakes determined by surface area, age and connectivity , 2003 .

[32]  C. D. Brown,et al.  Seasonal Patterns of Chlorophyll, Nutrient Concentrations and Secchi Disk Transparency in Florida Lakes , 1998 .

[33]  Jean H. Meeus,et al.  Astronomical Algorithms , 1991 .

[34]  C. Brönmark.  How Do Herbivorous Freshwater Snails Affect Macrophytes?‐‐A Comment , 1989 .

[35]  Eloy Bécares,et al.  State of the art in the functioning of shallow Mediterranean lakes: workshop conclusions , 2007 .

[36]  S. Bayley,et al.  Do wetland lakes exhibit alternative stable states? Submersed aquatic vegetation and chlorophyll in western boreal shallow lakes , 2003 .

[37]  Cassandra James,et al.  Nitrate availability and hydrophyte species richness in shallow lakes , 2005 .

[38]  Robert Tibshirani,et al.  Bootstrap Methods for Standard Errors, Confidence Intervals, and Other Measures of Statistical Accuracy , 1986 .

[39]  E. Jeppesen,et al.  Macrophyte-Waterfowl Interactions: Tracking a Variable Resource and the Impact of Herbivory on Plant Growth , 1998 .

[40]  M. Hulme,et al.  A high-resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas , 2002 .

[41]  Engineering and biological approaches to the restoration from eutrophication of shallow lakes in which aquatic plant communities are important components , 1990 .

[42]  S. Hülsmann,et al.  Predicting the effect of climate change on temperate shallow lakes with the ecosystem model PCLake , 2007, Hydrobiologia.

[43]  Eloy Bécares,et al.  Responses of phytoplankton to fish predation and nutrient loading in shallow lakes: a pan-European mesocosm experiment , 2004 .

[44]  C. Boylen,et al.  Submergent Macrophytes: Growth Under Winter Ice Cover , 1976, Science.