Analyze of LNG Generation Investment Cost Under Market Linkage Mechanism

The paper sets up a model of investing liquefied natural gas(LNG) power generation replac- ing existing fuel power generation based on real option theory.The model considering three uncertain fac- tors:existing coal-fired power generation cost, carbon price and LNG power generation cost.From the per- spective of power generation enterprises,we model and analyze the value of cost of LNG power generation replacing coal-fired power generation.In the simulation part, through the path simulation ,we give the natural gas power generation, the original coal and the carbon price under random paths change curve, and gives sev- eral uncertain factors under a single path path..This study from the perspective of power generation enterprise modeling analysis, the conclusions will help the power generation enterprise value assessment of LNG power generation project, and help them decide whether to invest in the project.