Trading Strategies based on Pattern Recognition in Stock Futures Market using Dynamic Time Warping Algorithm

Traditional technical analysis is forecasting the up and down trends in the stock market. However, it is difficult to apply technical analysis directly because it relies on human experience to select optimal strategies for individual stocks. Thus, a stock market trading system has been developed to apply optimal investment strategies by many traders given various market situations. Many pattern recognition methodologies have been used to develop successful strategies in this trading system, and the various strategies were generated using an expanded technical analysis. The aim of this study is to construct a pattern-recognition-based trading system (PRTS) for providing suitable investment strategies in the stock futures market. The PRTS uses a dynamic time warping (DTW) algorithm to recognize various market patterns and provides investment strategies using diverse technical indicators for the market. Through empirical studies, we show that DTW yields an efficient PRTS for various market conditions.

[1]  Deng-Yiv Chiu,et al.  Exploring stock market dynamism in multi-nations with genetic algorithm, support vector regression, and optimal technical analysis , 2010, The 6th International Conference on Networked Computing and Advanced Information Management.

[2]  Tae Yoon Kim,et al.  Using rough set to support investment strategies of real-time trading in futures market , 2010, Applied Intelligence.

[3]  R. Bellman Dynamic programming. , 1957, Science.

[4]  Tak-Chung Fu,et al.  An evolutionary approach to pattern-based time series segmentation , 2004, IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation.

[5]  Mieko Tanaka-Yamawaki,et al.  Adaptive use of technical indicators for the prediction of intra-day stock prices , 2007 .

[6]  J. Murphy Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications , 1986 .

[7]  W. Sharpe The Sharpe Ratio , 1994 .

[8]  Ming Dong,et al.  Can Fuzzy Logic Make Technical Analysis 20/20? , 2004 .

[9]  Hai Lin,et al.  Order imbalance, individual stock returns and volatility: Evidence from China , 2012 .

[10]  Rohit Choudhry,et al.  A Hybrid Machine Learning System for Stock Market Forecasting , 2008 .

[11]  Kyung-shik Shin,et al.  A hybrid approach based on neural networks and genetic algorithms for detecting temporal patterns in stock markets , 2007, Appl. Soft Comput..

[12]  Eamonn J. Keogh,et al.  Derivative Dynamic Time Warping , 2001, SDM.

[13]  Andrew W. Lo,et al.  Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation , 2000 .

[14]  Robert W. Colby,et al.  The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators , 1988 .

[15]  Russell L. Purvis,et al.  Stock market trading rule discovery using technical charting heuristics , 2002, Expert Syst. Appl..

[16]  Paul R. Cohen,et al.  Learned models for continuous planning , 1999, AISTATS.

[17]  William Leigh,et al.  A computational implementation of stock charting: abrupt volume increase as signal for movement in New York Stock Exchange Composite Index , 2004, Decis. Support Syst..

[18]  Sheng-Tun Li,et al.  Knowledge discovery in financial investment for forecasting and trading strategy through wavelet-based SOM networks , 2008, Expert Syst. Appl..

[19]  Biing-Hwang Juang,et al.  Fundamentals of speech recognition , 1993, Prentice Hall signal processing series.

[20]  Russell L. Purvis,et al.  Forecasting the NYSE composite index with technical analysis, pattern recognizer, neural network, and genetic algorithm: a case study in romantic decision support , 2002, Decis. Support Syst..

[21]  Jinseok Chae,et al.  A Two-Phase Stock Trading System Using Distributional Differences , 2002, DEXA.

[22]  Wei Yan,et al.  Optimization of Measuring Investor Sentiment , 2012 .

[23]  Shu-Hua Hsiao,et al.  The Association of China Stock Index with Japan and US , 2008, J. Convergence Inf. Technol..