An Integrated Assessment Model with Endogenous Growth

We introduce endogenous directed technical change into numerical integrated climate and development policy assessment. We distinguish expenditures on innovation (R&D) and imitation (international technology spillovers) and consider the role of capital investment in creating and implementing new technologies. Our main contribution is to calibrate and numerically solve the model and to examine the model's sensitivity. As an application, we assess a carbon budget-based climate policy and vary the beginning of energy-saving technology transfer. Accordingly, China is a main beneficiary of early technology transfer. Herein, our results highlight the importance of timely international technology transfer for efficiently meeting global emission targets. Most of the consumption gains from endogenous growth are captured in the baseline. Moreover, mitigation costs turn out to be insensitive to changes in most of the parameters of endogenous growth. A higher effectivity of energy-specific relative to labor-specific expenditures on innovation and imitation reduces mitigation costs, though.

[1]  P. Romer Endogenous Technological Change , 1989, Journal of Political Economy.

[2]  A. Löschel,et al.  Directed technical change and differentiation of climate policy , 2008 .

[3]  David A. Starrett,et al.  General equilibrium theory and international trade , 1972 .

[4]  Richard Kneller,et al.  Frontier Technology, Absorptive Capacity and Distance , 2002 .

[5]  Stephen H. Schneider,et al.  Induced technological change and the attractiveness of CO2 abatement policies , 1999 .

[6]  R. Nelson,et al.  Investment in humans, technological diffusion and economic growth , 1965 .

[7]  M. Tavoni,et al.  A World Induced Technical Change Hybrid Model , 2006 .

[8]  Tirso Leonardo Barreto Gómez,et al.  Technological Learning in Energy Optimisation Models and Deployment of Emerging Technologies , 2001 .

[9]  T. Masui,et al.  Variation factors of global cropland requirements from the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) , 2009 .

[10]  G. Grossman,et al.  Innovation and growth in the global economy , 1993 .

[11]  Zvi Griliches,et al.  Interindustry Technology Flows and Productivity Growth: A Reexamination , 1984 .

[12]  David Popp,et al.  Innovation in climate policy models: Implementing lessons from the economics of R&D , 2006 .

[13]  Valentina Bosetti,et al.  International Energy R&D Spillovers and the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Atmospheric Stabilization , 2007 .

[14]  X. Diao,et al.  International spillovers, productivity growth and openness in Thailand , 2005 .

[15]  Philippe Aghion,et al.  The Economics of Growth , 2008 .

[16]  Jean Charles Hourcade,et al.  Endogenous Structural Change and Climate Targets Modeling Experiments with Imaclim-R , 2006 .

[17]  Ottmar Edenhofer,et al.  Technological Change and International Trade -Insights from REMIND-R , 2010 .

[18]  Elmar Kriegler,et al.  The impact of technological change on climate protection and welfare: Insights from the model MIND , 2005 .

[19]  Graciela Chichilnisky,et al.  Environmental Markets: Equity and Efficiency , 2000 .

[20]  Mark Schankerman,et al.  The effects of double-counting and expensing on the measured returns to r&d , 1981 .

[21]  W. Semmler,et al.  Externalities of Investment, Education and Economic Growth , 2002 .

[22]  D. Acemoglu Directed Technical Change , 2001 .

[23]  鳥居 泰彦,et al.  世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators , 1998 .

[24]  Michael Hübler Technology diffusion under contraction and convergence: A CGE analysis of China , 2011 .

[25]  根岸 隆,et al.  General equilibrium theory and international trade , 1972 .

[26]  Stephen J. Redding,et al.  Mapping The Two Faces Of R&D: Productivity Growth In A Panel Of OECD Industries , 2000 .

[27]  David Popp,et al.  Entice: Endogenous Technological Change in the Dice Model of Global Warming , 2003 .

[28]  Michael J. Carey,et al.  Data services , 2012, Commun. ACM.

[29]  Valentina Bosetti,et al.  A World induced Technical Change Hybrid Model , 2006 .

[30]  Jean Charles Hourcade,et al.  Endogenous structural change and climate targets , 2006 .

[31]  Claudia Kemfert,et al.  Induced Technological Change in a Multi-regional, Multi-sectoral Integrated Assessment Model (WIAGEM): Impact Assessment of Climate Policy Strategies , 2005 .

[32]  Valentina Bosetti,et al.  What Should We Expect from Innovation? A Model-Based Assessment of the Environmental and Mitigation Cost Implications of Climate-Related R&D , 2010, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[33]  Andreas Löschel,et al.  Technological uncertainty and cost effectiveness of CO2 emission reduction , 2009 .

[34]  Jess Benhabib,et al.  Human Capital and Technology Diffusion , 2002 .

[35]  F. Scherer,et al.  Using Linked Patent and R&D Data to Measure Interindustry Technology Flows , 1984 .

[36]  G. Chichilnisky,et al.  Saving Kyoto: An Insider's Guide to How It Works, Why It Matters and What It Means for the Future , 2009 .

[37]  F. Carmignani,et al.  Introduction to Modern Economic Growth. , 2012 .

[38]  P. Aghion,et al.  Distance to Frontier, Selection, and Economic Growth , 2002 .

[39]  Socrates Kypreos,et al.  Linking energy system and macroeconomic growth models , 2008, Comput. Manag. Sci..

[40]  Marios Zachariadis,et al.  R&D, Innovation, and Technological Progress: A Test of the Schumpeterian Framework Without Scale Effects , 2003 .

[41]  Amy M. Hightower,et al.  Science and Engineering Indicators , 1993 .

[42]  Alexander Wokaun,et al.  Technological learning in energy optimisation models and deployment of emerging technologies , 2001 .

[43]  Philippe Aghion,et al.  Vertical Integration and Distance to Frontier , 2002 .

[44]  T. Bruckner,et al.  Aggregated Carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and climate model (ACC2): description of forward and inverse mode , 2007 .

[45]  Stephen J. Redding,et al.  R&D and Absorptive Capacity: Theory and Empirical Evidence* , 2003 .

[46]  Frederic M. Scherer,et al.  Inter-Industry Technology Flows and Productivity Growth , 1982 .

[47]  Philippe Ambrosi,et al.  State and trends of the carbon market 2006 : a focus on Africa , 2006 .

[48]  Nicholas A. Linacre,et al.  State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2011 , 2010 .

[49]  N. Meinshausen,et al.  Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne , 2009, Nature.

[50]  Gabrial Anandarajah,et al.  Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy , 2009 .

[51]  Lavinia Baumstark,et al.  The impact of capital trade and technological spillovers on climate policies. , 2010 .

[52]  S. Kahouli-Brahmi Technological learning in energy–environment–economy modelling: A survey , 2008 .

[53]  R. Gerlagh A climate-change policy induced shift from innovations in carbon-energy production to carbon-energy savings , 2008 .

[54]  O. Edenhofer,et al.  Mitigation Costs in a Globalized World: Climate Policy Analysis with REMIND-R , 2010 .

[55]  K. Arrow The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing , 1962 .

[56]  A. Parant [World population prospects]. , 1990, Futuribles.

[57]  A. Löschel,et al.  Energy Biased Technical Change: A Cge Analysis , 2007 .

[58]  Carlo Carraro,et al.  How Does Climate Policy Affect Technical Change ? An Analysis of the Direction and Pace of Technical Progress in a Climate-Economy Model , 2013 .

[59]  佐藤 龍三郎,et al.  Selected demographic indicators from the United Nations' world population prospects, the 2008 revision , 2009 .

[60]  Gunnar Luderer,et al.  The role of technological availability for the distributive impacts of climate change mitigation policy , 2011 .

[61]  F. J. Velázquez,et al.  International technology spillovers from trade: the importance of the technological gap , 2004 .

[62]  N. Meinshausen,et al.  Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C , 2009, Nature.

[63]  Jess Benhabib,et al.  Chapter 13 Human Capital and Technology Diffusion , 2005 .