Predicting Change Propagation and Impact on Design Schedule Due to External Changes

Design projects often face changes from external sources causing redesign to many interdependent downstream activities. Depicting change propagation on the downstream activities and subsequent impact on design completion is a great challenge. This paper proposes a change propagation model to predict the change propagation on the downstream activities due to different degrees of change that might be initiated at different stages during a design project. The initiated change may cause change of different degrees to its immediate successors. The probability values of the change form a transition matrix for each dependency. The proposed model utilizes these transition matrices to depict the change propagation at the downstream. The change propagation model is then integrated with the scheduling model to schedule the propagated changes and to assess the overall impact on design completion and redesign (or loss in productivity). The effectiveness of the integrated model has been described with an illustrative case example. Such prediction and quantification of change impact would help project managers take the necessary actions for a proposed change.

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