Bayesian Decision Support Using Environmental Transport-And-Fate Models

Risk management decisions in environmental science must always be made amid uncertainty about the true extent of the risks and about the costs and benefits of the proposed actions intended to reduce those risks; seldom if ever are the consequences of each possible decision known in advance. Complex mathematical models have been constructed to support risk management decisions by predicting the consequences of each alternative course of action. Model predictions will depend upon the values specified by the user of a number of problem-specific parameters, many of which may not be known with certainty; models that fail to reflect the uncertainty in parameter specification may lead users to make inappropriate risk management decisions, with significant environmental and economic consequences.

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