Africa ’ s Automotive Industry : Potential and Challenges

The low level of industrialisation is a major problem in Africa. Many analysts have argued that lack of structural change during the phase of economic expansion since 2000 will impede future growth prospects due to the ongoing reliance on commodities. This in turn has serious consequences for the ability to expand employment. This paper outlines the limitations of industrial development in Africa in recent decades and briefly explores the various industrialisation options. It then goes on to use the example of the automotive industry to examine both the possibilities and pitfalls facing the development of this important sector. The automotive industry is a relatively sophisticated industry, but with sub-Saharan Africa’s rapidly expanding market and automotive trade deficit of $16.3 billion, it is important that ways are found to efficiently attract investment especially into parts of the sector, which are more appropriate for lowerincome countries. A number of larger countries such as Nigeria and Kenya are now embarking on plans to develop domestic automotive production. Some of these plans run the risk of encouraging lowvolume, inefficient production which provides little value added or employment. What is required is the broadening of the market through regional integration to allow for large-scale, productive investment. These issues are explored using Kenya as a case study. Rights and Permissions All rights reserved. The text and data in this publication may be reproduced as long as the source is cited. Reproduction for commercial purposes is forbidden. The WPS disseminates the findings of work in progress, preliminary research results, and development experience and lessons, to encourage the exchange of ideas and innovative thinking among researchers, development practitioners, policy makers, and donors. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in the Bank’s WPS are entirely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the view of the African Development Bank Group, its Board of Directors, or the countries they represent. Working Papers are available online at https://www.afdb.org/en/documents/publications/working-paper-series/ Produced by Macroeconomics Policy, Forecasting, and Research Department Coordinator Adeleke O. Salami This paper is the product of the Vice-Presidency for Economic Governance and Knowledge Management. It is part of a larger effort by the African Development Bank to promote knowledge and learning, share ideas, provide open access to its research, and make a contribution to development policy. The papers featured in the Working Paper Series (WPS) are those considered to have a bearing on the mission of AfDB, its strategic objectives of Inclusive and Green Growth, and its High-5 priority areas—to Power Africa, Feed Africa, Industrialize Africa, Integrate Africa and Improve Living Conditions of Africans. The authors may be contacted at workingpaper@afdb.org. Correct citation: Black, A., Makundi, B. and McLennan T. (2017), Africa’s Automotive Industry: Potential and Challenges, Working Paper Series N° 282, African Development Bank, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.