Uncertainty sensitivity assessment on the optimization of the design and operation of complex energy systems

In optimization of renewable energy system, uncertainties associated to technical and economical parameters are scarcely taken in account, which may lead to a weak confidence in results. In this paper, we propose and investigate a 4-steps methodology for uncertainty sensitivity assessment, with the objective to improve confidence in the assessment results and to support decision-making process following techno-economic optimization of the design and the operation of an autonomous power system. The methodology was applied to off- grid system including photovoltaic production, battery and hydrogen components (electrolyser, pressure storage and fuel cell). This energy system is modelled and optimized with Odyssey – a simulation software developed by CEA- LITEN since 2010. We focus on static parametrical uncertainties, linked to the energy system parameters.