Trends in adult cigarette smoking in California compared with the rest of the United States, 1978-1994.

OBJECTIVES This study compared trends in adult cigarette smoking prevalence in California and the remainder of the United States between 1978 and 1994. METHODS We used data from National Health Interview Surveys and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System surveys to compare trends in smoking prevalence among persons 18 years and older. RESULTS In both California and the remainder of the United States, the estimated annual rate of decline in adult smoking prevalence accelerated significantly from 1985 to 1990: to -1.22 percentage points per year (95% confidence interval [CI] = -1.51, -0.93) in California and to -0.93 percentage points per year (95% CI = -1.13, -0.73) in the remainder of the nation. The rate of decline slowed significantly from 1990 to 1994: to -0.39 percentage points per year (95% CI = -0.76, -0.03) in California and to -0.05 percentage points per year (95% CI = -0.34, 0.24) in the remainder of the United States. CONCLUSIONS The presence of an aggressive tobacco control intervention has supported a significant decline in adult smoking prevalence in California from 1985 to 1990 and a slower but still significant decline from 1990 to 1994, a period in which there was no significant decline in the remainder of the nation. To restore nationwide progress in reducing smoking prevalence, other states should consider similar interventions.

[1]  H. Gómez-Dantés,et al.  Curbing the epidemic: governments and the economics of tobacco control , 1999 .

[2]  E. Gilpin,et al.  Has the California tobacco control program reduced smoking? , 1998, JAMA.

[3]  S. Shiffman,et al.  Public health benefit of over-the-counter nicotine medications. , 1997, Tobacco control.

[4]  R. Sherman.  Shaming big tobacco's friends in California. , 1996, Tobacco control.

[5]  C. A. Johnson,et al.  Independent evaluation of the California Tobacco Education Program. , 1996, Public health reports.

[6]  T. Novotny,et al.  California's tobacco control saga. , 1996, Health affairs.

[7]  K. Cummings,et al.  Trends in smoking initiation among adolescents and young adults--United States, 1980-1989. , 1995, Oncology.

[8]  J. Pierce,et al.  Low-cost cigarettes and smoking behavior in California, 1990-1993. , 1996, American journal of preventive medicine.

[9]  G. Giovino,et al.  The extent of cigarette brand and company switching: results from the Adult Use-of-Tobacco Survey. , 1996, American journal of preventive medicine.

[10]  T. Hu,et al.  Reducing cigarette consumption in California: tobacco taxes vs an anti-smoking media campaign. , 1995, American journal of public health.

[11]  T. Hu,et al.  The impact of California anti-smoking legislation on cigarette sales, consumption, and prices , 1995, Tobacco Control.

[12]  S. Glantz,et al.  Undermining Popular Government: Tobacco Industry Political Expenditures in California 1993-1994 , 1995 .

[13]  T. Hu,et al.  The state antismoking campaign and the industry response: the effects of advertising on cigarette consumption in California. , 1995, The American economic review.

[14]  A. Skolnick.  Judge rules diversion of antismoking money illegal, victory for California Tobacco Control Program. , 1995, JAMA.

[15]  G. Giovino,et al.  Trends in cigarette smoking among US adolescents, 1974 through 1991. , 1995, American journal of public health.

[16]  C. Howell,et al.  Pricing Practices for Tobacco Products, 1980-94 , 1994 .

[17]  G. Giovino,et al.  Surveillance for selected tobacco-use behaviors--United States, 1900-1994. , 1994, MMWR. CDC surveillance summaries : Morbidity and mortality weekly report. CDC surveillance summaries.

[18]  E. Gilpin,et al.  Estimates of population smoking prevalence: self-vs proxy reports of smoking status. , 1994, American journal of public health.

[19]  Theodore E. Keeler,et al.  CIGARETTE TAXATION AND DEMAND: AN EMPIRICAL MODEL , 1994 .

[20]  A. Skolnick.  Antitobacco advocates fight 'illegal' diversion of tobacco control money. , 1994, JAMA.

[21]  J. Feldman,et al.  Health, United States, 1993 , 1994 .

[22]  T. Hu,et al.  The Impact of California Proposition 99, a Major Anti-Smoking Law, on Cigarette Consumption , 1994, Journal of public health policy.

[23]  A. Farkas,et al.  Tobacco Use in California: An Evaluation of the Tobacco Control Program, 1989-1993. A Report to the California Department of Health Services , 1994 .

[24]  S. Glantz.  Changes in cigarette consumption, prices, and tobacco industry revenues associated with California's proposition 99 , 1993 .

[25]  S. Glantz,et al.  The tobacco industry, state politics, and tobacco education in California. , 1993, American journal of public health.

[26]  D. Makuc,et al.  Health, United States, 1992 and Healthy People 2000 review , 1993 .

[27]  S. Glantz,et al.  Tobacco industry response to a risk assessment of environmental tobacco smoke , 1993 .

[28]  T E Keeler,et al.  Taxation, regulation, and addiction: a demand function for cigarettes based on time-series evidence. , 1991, Journal of health economics.

[29]  L. Breslow,et al.  California's Proposition 99 on tobacco, and its impact. , 1993, Annual review of public health.

[30]  T. Hu,et al.  the Impact of 1989 California Major Anti-Smoking Legislation Cigarette Consumption: Three Years Later , 1992 .

[31]  J. Elder,et al.  First-year impact of the 1989 California cigarette tax increase on cigarette consumption. , 1992, American journal of public health.

[32]  P. Barnett,et al.  the Impact of a Large Tax Increase on Cigarette Consumption: The Case of California , 1991 .

[33]  Massey Jt,et al.  Design and estimation for the National Health Interview Survey 1985-94. , 1989 .

[34]  C. Schoenborn,et al.  Current estimates from the National Health Interview Survey. , 1988, Vital and health statistics. Series 10, Data from the National Health Survey.

[35]  Parsons Vl,et al.  Current estimates from the National Health Interview Survey. United States, 1985. , 1986, Vital and health statistics. Series 10, Data from the National Health Survey.

[36]  G. Poe,et al.  The National Health Interview Survey : design 1973-84 and procedures 1975-83 , 1985 .

[37]  B. Shah.  Software for Survey Data Analysis , 1984 .

[38]  J. Neter,et al.  Applied Linear Regression Models , 1983 .

[39]  Schaible Wl,et al.  Small area estimation: an empirical comparison of conventional and synthetic estimators for states. , 1979 .

[40]  D. Commerce.  Statistical abstract of the United States , 1978 .

[41]  P. Levy,et al.  Synthetic estimation of state health characteristics based on the Health Interview Survey. , 1977, Vital and health statistics. Series 2, Data evaluation and methods research.