A Bayesian Exploration of the Relationship Between Crime and Unemployment in New Zealand for the Time Period : 1986-2002
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Traditionally, crime-unemployment studies focus on providing inference towards demonstrating causality. However, a definitive model of the complex crime unemployment nexus which can explain the relationship for any given geographical domain, social grouping or economic jurisdiction in any time period has not yet been constructed. Rather than attempting to explain the crime/unemployment relationship by conducting statistical tests, this study uses a Bayesian approach to scenario analysis based on New Zealand crime data reported by year and police district. Using only three years of data, it is shown that a Bayesian hierarchical model can achieve similar results to those of an earlier study based on 12 years of data, and has the potential to provide useful district-specific models. The implications for a longitudinal study over a longer time period are discussed.
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