CPA Calculation Method based on AIS Position Prediction

The information on the Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is required in a potential collision situation as it determines the risk to each vessel. CPA is usually calculated based on the speed and direction of the approaching ship neglecting the Change Of Speed (COS) and the Rate Of Turn (ROT). This will make the CPA less useful. To improve the CPA calculation, the Automatic Identification System (AIS) information containing the Speed Over Ground (SOG), Course Over Ground (COG), COS and ROT is used. Firstly, a model using these four factors is built to predict ship positions better. Secondly, a three-step CPA searching method is developed. The developed CPA calculation method can assist in informing the navigation decisions and reducing unnecessary manoeuvres. Through the analysis of a real collision scenario, this paper shows that the proposed method can help identify and warn anomalous ship behaviours in a realistic time frame.

[1]  Peter R. Winters,et al.  Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages , 1960 .

[2]  J. Kiefer,et al.  Sequential minimax search for a maximum , 1953 .

[3]  Ashim Kumar Debnath,et al.  Modeling perceived collision risk in port water navigation , 2009 .

[4]  James J. Filliben,et al.  NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods; Chapter 1: Exploratory Data Analysis , 2003 .

[5]  Xinping Yan,et al.  A novel method for restoring the trajectory of the inland waterway ship by using AIS data , 2015 .

[6]  Jung Sik Jeong,et al.  MARITIME TRAFFIC CHARACTERISTICS IN WATERWAY WITH TIME VARIANT CPA , 2013 .

[7]  Alan Wall,et al.  Radar and Arpa Manual , 1990 .

[8]  Inseok Hwang,et al.  Reactive Collision Avoidance of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Using a Single Vision Sensor , 2013 .

[9]  C. Holt.  Author's retrospective on ‘Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages’ , 2004 .

[10]  Fumio Shintani.  Consideration on the Amendments and the Uniform Application to International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREGS), 1972 , 1981 .

[11]  N. Sameshima.  Error of the Closest Point of Approach , 1961 .

[12]  Chung-Ming Huang,et al.  An early collision warning algorithm for vehicles based on V2V communication , 2012, Int. J. Commun. Syst..

[13]  Sangchul Lee,et al.  A Development of 3-D Resolution Algorithm for Aircraft Collision Avoidance , 2013 .

[14]  Michael Baldauf,et al.  A common risk model for the assessment of encounter situations on board ships , 1997 .

[15]  L. A. Pimontel.  A study into maritime collision probability , 2007 .

[16]  Carsten Hasberg,et al.  Integrating Spline Curves in Road Constraint Object Tracking , 2008, 2008 11th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

[17]  H. Ligteringen,et al.  Study on collision avoidance in busy waterways by using AIS data , 2010 .

[18]  C. Storey,et al.  Applications of a hill climbing method of optimization , 1962 .