Cost-effectiveness of alternative powertrains for reduced energy use and CO2 emissions in passenger vehicles

This work analysed the cost-effectiveness of avoiding carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions using advanced internal combustion engines, hybrids, plug-in hybrids, fuel cell vehicles and electric vehicles across the nine UK passenger vehicles segments. Across all vehicle types and powertrain groups, minimum installed motive power was dependent most on the time to accelerate from zero to 96.6km/h (60mph). Hybridising the powertrain reduced the difference in energy use between vehicles with slow (tz-60>8s) and fast acceleration (tz-60<8s) times. The cost premium associated with advanced powertrains was dependent most on the powertrain chosen, rather than the performance required. Improving non-powertrain components reduced vehicle road load and allowed total motive capacity to decrease by 17%, energy use by 11%, manufacturing cost premiums by 13% and CO2 emissions abatement costs by 15%. All vehicles with advanced internal combustion engines, most hybrid and plug-in hybrid powertrains reduced net CO2 emissions and had lower lifetime operating costs than the respective segment reference vehicle. Most powertrains using fuel cells and all electric vehicles had positive CO2 emissions abatement costs. However, only vehicles using advanced internal combustion engines and parallel hybrid vehicles may be attractive to consumers by the fuel savings offsetting increases in vehicle cost within two years. This work demonstrates that fuel savings are possible relative to today’s fleet, but indicates that the most cost-effective way of reducing fuel consumption and CO2 emissions is by advanced combustion technologies and hybridisation with a parallel topology.

[1]  Sten Karlsson,et al.  Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles: How individual movement patterns affect battery requirements, the potential to replace conventional fuels, and economic viability , 2015 .

[2]  Andreas Müller,et al.  Simulating the impact of policy, energy prices and technological progress on the passenger car fleet in Austria—A model based analysis 2010–2050 , 2011 .

[3]  Aie,et al.  Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 , 2006 .

[4]  M. Gallaher,et al.  Automobile Industry Retail Price Equivalent and Indirect Cost Multipliers , 2009 .

[5]  Osman Akin Kutlar,et al.  Methods to improve efficiency of four stroke, spark ignition engines at part load , 2005 .

[6]  David Banister,et al.  Identifying the fuels and energy conversion technologies necessary to meet European passenger car emissions legislation to 2020 , 2012 .

[7]  Michael Wang,et al.  Well-to-Wheels Analysis of Advanced Fuel/Vehicle Systems — A North American Study of Energy Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Criteria Pollutant Emissions , 2005 .

[8]  Matthew J. Brusstar,et al.  High Efficiency and Low Emissions from a Port-Injected Engine with Neat Alcohol Fuels , 2002 .

[9]  M. Gallaher,et al.  Using indirect cost multipliers to estimate the total cost of adding new technology in the automobile industry , 2010 .

[10]  Bhanu Sood,et al.  Carbon footprinting of electronic products , 2014 .

[11]  François Maréchal,et al.  Gasoline hybrid pneumatic engine for efficient vehicle powertrain hybridization , 2015 .

[12]  Fabian Kesicki,et al.  Marginal Abatement Cost Curves: Combining Energy System Modelling and Decomposition Analysis , 2013, Environmental Modeling & Assessment.

[13]  David L. Greene,et al.  Energy futures for the US transport sector , 2001 .

[14]  Srdjan M. Lukic,et al.  Effects of drivetrain hybridization on fuel economy and dynamic performance of parallel hybrid electric vehicles , 2004, IEEE Transactions on Vehicular Technology.

[15]  J King,et al.  The King Review of low-carbon cars: part I: the potential for CO2 reduction , 2007 .

[16]  Francesco Pizzonia,et al.  A dynamic nucleate-boiling model for CO2 reduction in internal combustion engines , 2015 .

[17]  Ina Meyer,et al.  Fuel Efficiency of the Austrian Passenger Vehicle Fleet , 2009 .

[18]  K. C. Divya,et al.  Battery Energy Storage Technology for power systems-An overview , 2009 .

[19]  John B. Heywood,et al.  ON THE ROAD IN 2020 - A LIFE-CYCLE ANALYSIS OF NEW AUTOMOBILE TECHNOLOGIES , 2000 .

[20]  D. Sperling,et al.  Greenhouse gas mitigation supply curve for the United States for transport versus other sectors , 2009 .

[21]  Bert van Wee,et al.  Cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gas mitigation in transport: A review of methodological approaches and their impact , 2011 .

[22]  Eiichi Endo,et al.  Analysis of the vehicle mix in the passenger-car sector in Japan for CO2 emissions reduction by a MARKAL model , 2006 .

[23]  R. L. Cole,et al.  Emissions and fuel economy of a vehicle with a spark-ignition, direct-injection engine : Mitsubishi Legnum GDI{trademark}. , 1999 .

[24]  C. Thiel,et al.  Cost and CO2 Aspects of Future Vehicle Options in Europe under New Energy Policy Scenarios , 2010 .

[25]  Guzay Pasaoglu,et al.  Potential vehicle fleet CO2 reductions and cost implications for various vehicle technology deployment scenarios in Europe , 2012 .