Estimating the effect of decision deviation spreading in networked synergetic emergency decision-making environment: a case study on maritime accident disposition

The generation and propagation of human error will have a great impact on the decision-making in emergency environment. The analysis of the model and mechanism of human error and its propagation is of great significance to the study of emergency decision-making. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a decision failure model based on confidence rule (BRB) reasoning. Individual decision-making is taken as a node in workflow, and the network workflow among decision-making units is examined in a larger scope by establishing the interactive network between nodes. On this basis, the control model of human decision-making errors is further constructed, including the accumulation, transmission and correction of decision-making errors. Finally, taking maritime emergency rescue as an example, this paper studies the capability of the fault control model to identify and correct faults in the decision-making workflow. The research shows that the model can describe the degree of decision deviation of the decision-making unit, and reflect the control and correction function of the decision workflow on the decision error to some extent.