A new method to estimate species and biodiversity intactness using empirically derived reference conditions

Critical to the conservation of biodiversity is knowledge of status and trends of species. To that end, monitoring programmes have reported on the state of biodiversity using reference conditions as comparison. Little consensus exists on how reference conditions are defined and how such information is used to index intactness. Most use protected areas or an arbitrary year as reference. This is problematic since protected areas are often spatially biased, while arbitrarily defined reference years are often not sufficiently distant in time. We propose an alternative that relies on empirical estimates of reference conditions. Statistical ranges of reference are estimated and compared with observed occurrence and abundance to index status of individual species. When averaged among species, overall intactness is estimated. We demonstrate the approach using 202-winter mammal tracking sites from the boreal forest of Alberta, Canada. Intactness was estimated at 89 out of 100 with the southern boreal having lowest intactness and greatest human footprint. We suggest empirical predictions of reference conditions be used as baselines for comparing changes in the state of species and biodiversity. Reporting can occur at any spatial (e.g., ecosystem) or hierarchical (e.g., species, guilds, taxonomic group, or overall biodiversity) scale and is easily interpreted (scaled from 0-degraded to 100-intact). When used in a long-term monitoring framework, statistical trends in biodiversity intactness can be estimated, individual status of species assessed, and relevant