Distinguishing Between CAT and Non-CAT Areas by Use of Discriminant Function Analysis

Abstract The formulation of algebraic functions, involving synoptic-scale atmospheric parameters as variables, capable of predicting clear-air turbulence within 7000 ft sub-layers of the stratosphere was attempted. The data sample used was composed of 153 turbulent and non-turbulent regions identified from 46 stratospheric flights of the XB-70 aircraft over the western United States during the period March 1965 to November 1967, and the values of 69 synoptic-scale parameters determined from rawinsonde data associated with each of the regions. After the XB-10 regions and the values of the synoptic-scale parameters were grouped into one or more of five overlapping categories, or sub-layers, determined by the altitude of the aircraft at the time the turbulence or non-turbulence was reported, discriminant function analysis was employed in each sub-layer to construct functions which could discriminate the turbulent from the non-turbulent regions. Those discriminant functions yielding the best results in each s...