Predictions of road safety in industrialized countries and Eastern Europe

This paper examines the relationship between mobility growth and risk adaptation which is theoretically understood as the result of a technological evolution under socio-economic constraints. Differences in developments between countries are interpreted as differences in onset, speed and modulation of that technological evolution due to different socio-economic constraints. This, as well as the remarkable fit of the model and the relation between growth of kilometrage and risk adaptation, are illustrated by results for Japan, Germany (west) and the USA for time series of 40 year and longer. For Eastern Europe it is argued that, due to socio-economic constraints in Eastern Europe up to now, the trend for the technological evolution of motorization is retarded socio-politically and that its cyclic wave function expresses the socio-economic repression of the last decade. The socio-political constraints in Eastern Europe are released nowadays and it can be assumed that the economic repression will turn into an upsurge in the next decade. A quantitative analysis show that these expectations are reflected in the growth of motorized mobility up to now and in the future. The analysis also confirms the close relation between mobility growth and risk adaptation from which the development of the fatality rate in the future can be deduced. An analysis is shown for the countries of Hungary, Poland and the Czech and Sovak Republic(s). The tentative results show a disastrous development of road fatalities in the next decade and a fast safety improvement thereafter. Some thoughts are given to means which may prevent these worse outcomes for the near future, but the possibility for success is doubted. (A) For the covering abstract of the conference see IRRD 866319.