Conservatism Assessment of Extreme Value Theory Overbounds

An approach using extreme value theory (EVT) to generate conservative overbounds for measurement errors is assessed. In this approach, EVT is used to construct a model for tails of an unknown distribution. Results from a Monte Carlo simulation study are presented, which show that estimated tails are not necessarily conservative. The reasons for this lack of conservatism are described and discussed. A method for addressing this lack of conservatism is proposed and evaluated.

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