Is Trust in Others Declining in America? An Age–Period–Cohort Analysis

Analyzing survey data for the United States from 1972 to 1998, we assess the claim of Robert Putnam and others that interpersonal trust in America has eroded in recent decades. We examine changes in trust by attempting to estimate age, period, and cohort effects. We find a nonlinear aging effect: Trust is lowest among the youngest Americans, increases up to middle age, and then levels off. We also find over-time decreases in U.S. trust. These may stem from a nonlinear cohort effect: Generations born up to the 1940s exhibit high levels of trust, but each generation born after that is less trusting than the one before. We argue that some of the over-time decline might also stem from an age-specific period effect: Beginning in the 1980s the trust of young and middle-aged Americans declined steadily. We note that if successive generations continue to be less and less trusting, then through a process of cohort replacement U.S. society will become pervaded by mistrust.

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