High temperature superconductivity: The products and their benefits

Numerous qualitative studies have discussed, in detail, the benefits projected from the commercialization of HTS systems; however, few are available with quantitative predictions of market penetration and resultant benefits. This report attempts to quantify those benefits, as a function of time, by examining five key classes of candidate HTS electrical equipment, and projecting market entry and capture based on historical market entry o technologies considered analogous to HTS. Any such projection is a judgment, based on experience and available data, and the analyses in this report fall into that category. The five classes of equipment examined are electric motors, transformers, generators, underground cable, and fault current limiters. In each of these classes, major international programs are now underway to develop and commercialize HTS equipment in a time frame from the present to the year 2020. Based on technology status and perceived market advantages as determined from the references, market entry dates were projected followed by market penetration predictions. The earliest equipment to achieve commercialization is predicted to be fault current limiters, predicted for market entry in the 2003--2004 time period. Transformers and cable are projected for entry in 2005 followed by electric motors in 2006. The final market entry will be by generators, predicted for commercialization in 2011.