Transformative Reduction of Transportation Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Opportunities for Change in Technologies and Systems

The transportation sector is changing, influenced by concurrent, ongoing, dynamic trends that could dramatically affect the future energy landscape, including effects on the potential for greenhouse gas emissions reductions. Battery cost reductions and improved performance coupled with a growing number of electric vehicle model offerings are enabling greater battery electric vehicle market penetration, and advances in fuel cell technology and decreases in hydrogen production costs are leading to initial fuel cell vehicle offerings. Radically more efficient vehicles based on both conventional and new drivetrain technologies reduce greenhouse gas emissions per vehicle-mile. Net impacts also depend on the energy sources used for propulsion, and these are changing with increased use of renewable energy and unconventional fossil fuel resources. Connected and automated vehicles are emerging for personal and freight transportation systems and could increase use of low- or non-emitting technologies and systems; however, the net effects of automation on greenhouse gas emissions are uncertain. The longstanding trend of an annual increase in transportation demand has reversed for personal vehicle miles traveled in recent years, demonstrating the possibility of lower-travel future scenarios. Finally, advanced biofuel pathways have continued to develop, highlighting low-carbon and in some cases carbon-negative fuel pathways. We discuss the potentialmore » for transformative reductions in petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions through these emerging transportation-sector technologies and trends and present a Clean Transportation Sector Initiative scenario for such reductions, which are summarized in Table ES-1.« less

[1]  Thomas H. Bradley,et al.  Total cost of ownership, payback, and consumer preference modeling of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles , 2013 .

[2]  Environmental Systems.  Driving and the built environment : the effects of compact development on motorized travel, energy use, and CO2 emissions , 2009 .

[3]  Peter Slowik,et al.  Lifecycle Analysis Comparison of a Battery Electric Vehicle and a Conventional Gasoline Vehicle , 2012 .

[4]  Marc Melaina,et al.  Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios , 2013 .

[5]  Julian D Marshall,et al.  Life cycle air quality impacts of conventional and alternative light-duty transportation in the United States , 2014, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[6]  Hao Cai,et al.  Consideration of black carbon and primary organic carbon emissions in life-cycle analysis of Greenhouse gas emissions of vehicle systems and fuels. , 2014, Environmental science & technology.

[7]  N Humphrey,et al.  Driving and the built environment: the effect of compact development on motorized travel, energy use, and CO2 emissions , 2010 .

[8]  Adam Duran,et al.  Effect of Platooning on Fuel Consumption of Class 8 Vehicles Over a Range of Speeds, Following Distances, and Mass , 2014 .

[9]  Nathan Parker,et al.  Three Routes Forward for Biofuels – Incremental, Transitional, and Leapfrog , 2014 .

[10]  David L. McCollum,et al.  Identifying Options for Deep Reductions in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from California Transportation: Meeting an 80% Reduction Goal in 2050 , 2008 .

[11]  Jeffrey Gonder,et al.  Analyzing Vehicle Fuel Saving Opportunities through Intelligent Driver Feedback , 2012 .

[12]  C. Bretherton,et al.  Clouds and Aerosols , 2013 .

[13]  Phineas Baxandall,et al.  Transportation and the New Generation Why Young People Are Driving Less and What It Means for Transportation Policy , 2012 .

[14]  Todd Litman,et al.  THE FUTURE ISN'T WHAT IT USED TO BE: CHANGING TRENDS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR TRANSPORT PLANNING , 2005 .

[15]  S. Polzin,et al.  The Case for Moderate Growth in Vehicle Miles of Travel: A Critical Juncture in U.S. Travel Behavior Trends , 2006 .

[16]  David Howell,et al.  The EV Everywhere Grand Challenge , 2013, 2013 World Electric Vehicle Symposium and Exhibition (EVS27).

[17]  Petr Krejci,et al.  Cooperative Control of SARTRE Automated Platoon Vehicles , 2012 .

[18]  EnergyInformationAdministration.  Annual Energy Outlook 2008 With Projections to 2030 , 2008 .

[19]  Kirsten Hartvig,et al.  Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels , 2000 .

[20]  M. Baucus.  Transportation Research Board , 1982 .

[21]  Board on Energy,et al.  Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels , 2013 .

[22]  B. Immers,et al.  New Drivers in Mobility; What Moves the Dutch in 2012? , 2013 .

[23]  Amgad Elgowainy,et al.  Life cycle analysis of fuel production from fast pyrolysis of biomass. , 2013, Bioresource technology.

[24]  Luis F. Miranda-Moreno,et al.  Impact of ICT access on personal activity space and greenhouse gas production: evidence from Quebec City, Canada , 2012 .

[25]  Susan L Handy,et al.  How do local actions affect VMT? A critical review of the empirical evidence , 2012 .

[26]  Jeffrey Gonder,et al.  An Analysis of Possible Energy Impacts of Automated Vehicles , 2014 .

[27]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis , 2013 .

[28]  Russell W Stratton,et al.  Impact of aviation non-CO₂ combustion effects on the environmental feasibility of alternative jet fuels. , 2011, Environmental science & technology.

[29]  Ye Wu,et al.  Total versus urban: Well-to-wheels assessment of criteria pollutant emissions from various vehicle/fuel systems , 2009 .

[30]  Jamie Davies.  How Assumptions About Consumers Influence Estimates of Electric Vehicle Miles Traveled of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles: A Review of PHEV Use Data and Possible Implications for the SAEJ2841 Utility Factor (UF) Standard , 2014 .

[31]  S. K. Ribeiro.  Transport and its infrastructure , 2007 .

[32]  Mary Holing.  It’s a Question of Proportionality: Proposition 26’s Impacts on Funding for the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 , 2012 .

[33]  Michael Q. Wang,et al.  Methane and nitrous oxide emissions affect the life-cycle analysis of algal biofuels , 2012 .

[34]  Aeo,et al.  Annual Energy Outlook 2008: With Projections to 2030 , 2008 .

[35]  David L. McCollum,et al.  Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications , 2009 .

[36]  Laura Vimmerstedt,et al.  Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Research, Development, and Deployment in Meeting Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Goals: The Case of the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2007 (S.2191) , 2010 .

[37]  M. V. Kumar,et al.  Wireless Charging System for Electric Vehicles , 2017 .

[38]  Michael Q. Wang,et al.  Material and energy flows in the materials production, assembly, and end-of-life stages of the automotive lithium-ion battery life cycle , 2014 .

[39]  Michael Sivak.  HAS MOTORIZATION IN THE U.S. PEAKED , 2013 .

[40]  Jen Beaumont,et al.  Households and families , 2011 .

[41]  Nick Nigro,et al.  LIFECYCLE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROM DIFFERENT LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLE AND FUEL PATHWAYS: A SYNTHESIS OF RECENT RESEARCH , 2013 .

[42]  Joseph P. Fuhr,et al.  Broadband and Telecommuting: Helping the U.S. Environment and the Economy , 2011 .

[43]  Michael Sivak.  HAS MOTORIZATION IN THE U.S. PEAKED? PART 4: HOUSEHOLDS WITHOUT A LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLE , 2014 .

[44]  Anant D Vyas,et al.  Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvement Beyond the Light-Duty-Vehicle Sector , 2013 .

[45]  J Izdebska-sedzimir,et al.  Households and families , 1986, Wiadomosci statystyczne.

[46]  Vijay Sivaraman,et al.  Comparison of the energy, carbon and time costs of videoconferencing and in-person meetings , 2014, Comput. Commun..

[47]  Chuntaek Rim,et al.  The development and deployment of On-Line Electric Vehicles (OLEV) , 2013 .

[48]  N. D. D. Graaf,et al.  Trends in the Netherlands: social, economic, cultural and demographic trends in the 20th century , 2002 .

[49]  Emmanuel P Kasseris,et al.  On the Road in 2035 : Reducing Transportation ’ s Petroleum Consumption and GHG Emissions , 2008 .

[50]  M. Ha-Duong,et al.  Climate change 2014 - Mitigation of climate change , 2015 .

[51]  David L. McCollum,et al.  Deep greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for California – Strategic implications from the CA-TIMES energy-economic systems model , 2012 .

[52]  Changzheng Liu,et al.  Analyzing the transition to electric drive vehicles in the U.S. , 2014 .

[53]  D. Horst,et al.  Disruptive innovations: The case for hydrogen fuel cells and battery electric vehicles , 2013 .

[54]  S. Bauer,et al.  Attribution of climate forcing to economic sectors , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.