Theory of Urban Household Automobile-Ownership Decisions

Automobile-ownership behavior is modeled as a function of socioeconomic factors and the availability and levels of service of public transportation systems. Decision makers are assumed to maximize their individual and household utilities within budget and time constraints. The benefits of increased mobility are weighed against the loss in other consumption attributable to ownership of 1 or more automobiles. Variables specific to residential and activity-center locations include the attractiveness of destinations served by public transit, the attractiveness of those not served by public transit, and respective travel times by automobile and transit. Estimation equations are developed through the introduction of functional forms for utility components and random utility terms representing variances in perception and taste and omitted factors. Multinomial logit models are used to define the probability of homogeneous groups of households choosing to own a specific number of automobiles. Calibrations are performed by using data from home-interview surveys and network simulations in the Detroit metropolitan area. Results are encouraging. All coefficients representing partial equilibrium market parameters are signed correctly and are significantly different from 0 where expected, and goodness-of-fit measures indicate acceptable model descriptive power.

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