Studying hazards for resilience modelling in ATM Mathematical Approach towards Resilience Engineering in ATM ( MAREA )

Foreword — This paper describes a project that is part of SESAR WP-E, which is addressing long-term and innovative research. Abstract — Resilience engineering purports to improve the safety in complex socio-technical systems, such as in air traffic management (ATM). The MAREA project aims to support a more systematic analysis of resilience in ATM by developing a mathematical modelling and analysis approach for resilience engineering in ATM. Key elements will be models for humanrelated aspects. This paper describes the basis for this development. It describes model constructs of existing safety analysis methods. It presents a broad set of ATM hazards, highlighting various sources of performance variability in the ATM socio-technical system. It discusses interviews with pilots and controllers about their ways to deal with hazards. It studies the potential of the existing model constructs to describe the performance variability indicated by the hazards. It is concluded that multi-agent dynamic risk modelling can represent a wide variety of performance variability in complex ATM scenarios and has the potential to systematically analyse risk and resilience.

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