Model-based estimation of land subsidence in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal

ABSTRACT This study is the first to assess land subsidence in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. Land subsidence simulations were based on a fully calibrated groundwater (GW) flow model developed using a coupled surface–subsurface modelling system. Subsidence is predicted to occur as a result of deep aquifer compaction due to excessive GW abstraction. The north and north-east areas at the periphery of the GW basin are hotspots for this subsidence. The estimated subsidence is most sensitive to changes in land cover within the recharge areas. The model shows the Melamchi water supply project assists in the control of subsidence to some extent. In the absence of land subsidence measurements, this paper highlights the location and the potential levels of the subsidence hazard which will be useful for hazard prevention management. Additionally, this work provides a basis to design field investigations, monitoring networks for land subsidence and upgrading the present GW monitoring network. Although the study has presented a preliminary analysis, a more comprehensive model inclusive of clay subsidence is required to address the subsidence vulnerability of the central densely populated core of the valley, which reflects the need for a comprehensive database of the hydrogeology in the valley.

[1]  S. A. Leake.  Simulation of vertical compaction in models of regional ground-water flow , 1991 .

[2]  S. Leake.  Interbed storage changes and compaction in models of regional groundwater flow , 1990 .

[3]  J. F. Poland,et al.  Glossary of selected terms useful in studies of the mechanics of aquifer systems and land subsidence due to fluid withdrawal , 1972 .

[4]  N. Phien-Wej,et al.  Land subsidence in Bangkok, Thailand , 2006 .

[5]  Ralph C. Heath,et al.  Cretaceous aquifers in North Carolina: analysis of safe yield based on historical data , 2003 .

[6]  Howard A. Zebker,et al.  Inverse modeling of interbed storage parameters using land subsidence observations, Antelope Valley, California , 2003 .

[7]  J. Dottridge,et al.  Groundwater resources and quality in northeastern Jordan: safe yield and sustainability , 1999 .

[8]  Z. Yue,et al.  Review on current status and challenging issues of land subsidence in China , 2004 .

[9]  Saroj Kumar Chapagain,et al.  Evaluation of groundwater environment of Kathmandu Valley , 2010 .

[10]  M. Sneed,et al.  Aquifer-System compaction and land subsidence: Measurements, analyses, and simulations-the Holly Site, Edwards Air Force Base, Antelope Valley, California , 2000 .

[11]  P. E. O'connell,et al.  An introduction to the European Hydrological System — Systeme Hydrologique Europeen, “SHE”, 2: Structure of a physically-based, distributed modelling system , 1986 .

[12]  Chung-Pai Chang,et al.  Surface deformation from persistent scatterers SAR interferometry and fusion with leveling data: A case study over the Choushui River Alluvial Fan, Taiwan , 2011 .

[13]  Miguel A. Mariño,et al.  Prediction of optimal safe ground water yield and land subsidence in the Los Banos-Kettleman City area, California, using a calibrated numerical simulation model , 2001 .

[14]  Tetsuo Kuyama,et al.  Groundwater Management Policies in Asian Mega-Cities , 2008 .

[15]  M. Sneed,et al.  Analysis and simulation of regional subsidence accompanying groundwater abstraction and compaction of susceptible aquifer systems in the USA , 2013 .

[16]  Kenneth W. Hudnut,et al.  Detection of aquifer system compaction and land subsidence using interferometric synthetic aperture radar, Antelope Valley, Mojave Desert, California , 1998 .

[17]  R. Ma.  Modeling Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport , 2009 .

[18]  Yan Jiang,et al.  City subsidence observed with persistent scatterer InSAR , 2010 .

[19]  M. Babel,et al.  Vulnerability of freshwater resources in large and medium Nepalese river basins to environmental change. , 2010, Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research.

[20]  S. M. Marandi,et al.  Zonation and Prediction of Land Subsidence (Case Study-Kerman, Iran) * , 2011 .

[21]  T. Steenhuis,et al.  COmPREHENSIvE REvIEW OF GROUNdWATER RESEARCH IN THE KATHmANdU vALLEY , NEPAL , 2012 .

[22]  Sangam Shrestha,et al.  A framework for measuring groundwater sustainability , 2011 .

[23]  A. Rutter,et al.  A predictive model of rainfall interception in forests, 1. Derivation of the model from observations in a plantation of Corsican pine , 1971 .

[24]  S. A. Leake,et al.  MODFLOW-2000 Ground-Water Model?User Guide to the Subsidence and Aquifer-System Compaction (SUB) Package , 2003 .

[25]  S. P. Neuman,et al.  FINITE DIFFERENCE AND FINITE ELEMENT SIMULATION OF FIELD WATER UPTAKE BY PLANTS. , 1976 .

[26]  David E. Prudic,et al.  Documentation of a computer program to simulate aquifer-system compaction using the modular finite d , 1988 .

[27]  Jyr‐Ching Hu,et al.  The contribution to tectonic subsidence by groundwater abstraction in the Pingtung area, southwestern Taiwan as determined by GPS measurements , 2006 .

[28]  John Ewen,et al.  SHETRAN: Distributed River Basin Flow and Transport Modeling System , 2000 .

[29]  Jichun Wu,et al.  Simulation of regional land subsidence in the southern Yangtze Delta , 2008 .

[30]  Devin L. Galloway,et al.  Impacts of land subsidence caused by withdrawal of underground fluids in the United States , 2005 .

[31]  K. R. Rushton,et al.  Groundwater Hydrology: Conceptual and Computational Models , 2003 .

[32]  Arlen W. Harbaugh,et al.  A modular three-dimensional finite-difference ground-water flow model , 1984 .

[33]  Devin L. Galloway,et al.  Land subsidence in the United States , 1999 .

[34]  J. Bathurst,et al.  Modelling badlands erosion with SHETRAN at Draix, southeast France , 1998 .

[35]  S. F. Ashby,et al.  Modeling groundwater flow and contaminant transport , 1999 .

[36]  D. Rudolph,et al.  Analysis of long‐term land subsidence near Mexico City: Field investigations and predictive modeling , 1999 .

[37]  Thomas L. Holzer,et al.  Preconsolidation stress of aquifer systems in areas of induced land subsidence , 1981 .

[38]  Mary P Anderson,et al.  Heat as a Ground Water Tracer , 2005, Ground water.

[39]  J. Wainwright.  Book Review: Modelling soil erosion, sediment, transport and closely related hydrological processes , 2000 .

[40]  W. Balogun.  Trends And Mechanisms Of Land Subsidence Of A Coastal Plain In The Delta Of Yangtze River-China , 2011 .

[41]  S. Phillips,et al.  Simulation of ground-water flow and land subsidence in the Antelope Valley ground-water basin, California , 2003 .

[42]  Jichun Wu,et al.  Land subsidence in China , 2005 .