Estimation of Risk Countermeasure Effects Based Upon Project-Behavior Simulation System

There is no doubt that IT (Information Technologies) systems are essential as social infrastructure or enterprise infrastructure. However, the success rate of IT system development projects is not so high. In order to enhance the success rate of IT system development projects, it is important to take proper countermeasures against identified project risks. In this article, the authors apply the project-behavior simulation system, which have been prototyped by authors and is able to simulate projects behaviors as the propagation of risk or issue situations in projects, in order to estimate the effects of risk countermeasures on projects. Four scenarios are supposed. In each scenario, risk countermeasure is taken against specific risky project situation. Then, the effects of risk countermeasures in each scenario are estimated as simulation results. In order to validate the estimations of risk countermeasure effects, questionnaire surveys to project management experts are conducted. The results of surveys show that the estimations of risk countermeasures quite fit the experts own experiences except for the unrealistic risk countermeasures.