Disentangling the effects of selection and loss bias on gene dynamics

Significance Evolution of microbes is dominated by horizontal gene transfer and the incessant host–parasite arms race that promotes the evolution of diverse antiparasite defense systems. The evolutionary factors governing these processes are complex and difficult to disentangle, but rapidly growing genome databases provide ample material for testing evolutionary models. Rigorous mathematical modeling of evolutionary processes, combined with computer simulation and comparative genomics, allowed us to elucidate the evolutionary regimes of different classes of microbial genes. Only genes involved in key informational and metabolic pathways are subject to strong selection, whereas most of the others are effectively neutral or even burdensome. Mobile genetic elements and defense systems are costly, supporting the understanding that their evolution is governed by the same factors. We combine mathematical modeling of genome evolution with comparative analysis of prokaryotic genomes to estimate the relative contributions of selection and intrinsic loss bias to the evolution of different functional classes of genes and mobile genetic elements (MGE). An exact solution for the dynamics of gene family size was obtained under a linear duplication–transfer–loss model with selection. With the exception of genes involved in information processing, particularly translation, which are maintained by strong selection, the average selection coefficient for most nonparasitic genes is low albeit positive, compatible with observed positive correlation between genome size and effective population size. Free-living microbes evolve under stronger selection for gene retention than parasites. Different classes of MGE show a broad range of fitness effects, from the nearly neutral transposons to prophages, which are actively eliminated by selection. Genes involved in antiparasite defense, on average, incur a fitness cost to the host that is at least as high as the cost of plasmids. This cost is probably due to the adverse effects of autoimmunity and curtailment of horizontal gene transfer caused by the defense systems and selfish behavior of some of these systems, such as toxin–antitoxin and restriction modification modules. Transposons follow a biphasic dynamics, with bursts of gene proliferation followed by decay in the copy number that is quantitatively captured by the model. The horizontal gene transfer to loss ratio, but not duplication to loss ratio, correlates with genome size, potentially explaining increased abundance of neutral and costly elements in larger genomes.