Integrated land use modelling to analyse climate change adaptation in Austrian agriculture

We present an integrated modelling framework (IMF) to analyse climate change impacts on biophysical processes and farm management responses at the spatial resolution of 1km2. The IMF is applied to the Austrian agricultural sector for the period 2025-2040. The model results show that national agricultural producer surplus changes only marginally between -1% and +1% depending on the climate scenario. The regional results reveal that eastern cropland regions are more negatively affected than alpine grassland regions, which intensify production. This leads to changes in opportunity costs for agri-environmental programs, which calls for more targeted measures to increase efficiency and adaptation potential.

[1]  P. Rao,et al.  Impacts of climate change , 2014 .

[2]  E. Schmid,et al.  Integrated Analysis of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures in Austrian Agriculture , 2014, German Journal of Agricultural Economics.

[3]  S. Kotlarski,et al.  21st century climate change in the European Alps--a review. , 2014, The Science of the total environment.

[4]  Erwin Schmid,et al.  The participation of agricultural stakeholders in assessing regional vulnerability of cropland to soil water erosion in Austria , 2014, Regional Environmental Change.

[5]  Erwin Schmid,et al.  Spatially Explicit Modeling of Long-Term Drought Impacts on Crop Production in Austria , 2013 .

[6]  Pierre-Alain Jayet,et al.  Farm-level Autonomous Adaptation of European Agricultural Supply to Climate Change , 2013 .

[7]  Erwin Schmid,et al.  High resolution climate data for Austria in the period 2008–2040 from a statistical climate change model , 2013 .

[8]  H. Haberl,et al.  Challenges for land system science , 2012 .

[9]  Sylvain Leduc,et al.  Regional energy autarky: Potentials, costs and consequences for an Austrian region , 2012 .

[10]  K. Paustian,et al.  Climate change effects on organic carbon storage in agricultural soils of northeastern Spain , 2012 .

[11]  H. Formayer,et al.  Modeling climate change and biophysical impacts of crop production in the Austrian Marchfeld Region , 2012, Climatic Change.

[12]  Adrienne Grêt-Regamey,et al.  Assessing the impacts of economic and climate changes on land-use in mountain regions: A spatial dynamic modeling approach , 2012 .

[13]  M. Trnka,et al.  Impacts of climate change and alternative adaptation options on winter wheat yield and water productivity in a dry climate in Central Europe , 2012, The Journal of Agricultural Science.

[14]  Rudolf Brázdil,et al.  A 200-year climate record in Central Europe: implications for agriculture , 2011, Agronomy for Sustainable Development.

[15]  E. Schmid,et al.  CropRota – A crop rotation model to support integrated land use assessments , 2011 .

[16]  M. Trnka,et al.  Impacts and adaptation of European crop production systems to climate change , 2011 .

[17]  E. Schmid,et al.  Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption , 2011 .

[18]  Erwin Schmid,et al.  Integration of bio-physical and economic models to analyze management intensity and landscape structure effects at farm and landscape level , 2011 .

[19]  Pete Falloon,et al.  Climate impacts on European agriculture and water management in the context of adaptation and mitigation--the importance of an integrated approach. , 2010, The Science of the total environment.

[20]  J. Eitzinger,et al.  Impact of climate change on soil erosion and the efficiency of soil conservation practices in Austria , 2010, The Journal of Agricultural Science.

[21]  Erich Tasser,et al.  Plant diversity declines with recent land use changes in European Alps , 2009, Plant Ecology.

[22]  Stephan Dabbert,et al.  Modeling the impact of global change on regional agricultural land use through an activity-based non-linear programming approach , 2009 .

[23]  Bruce A. McCarl,et al.  Agricultural sector analysis on greenhouse gas mitigation in US agriculture and forestry. , 2007 .

[24]  Erwin Schmid,et al.  On the choice of farm management practices after the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy in 2003. , 2007, Journal of environmental management.

[25]  B. Eickhout,et al.  The impact of different policy environments on agricultural land use in Europe , 2006 .

[26]  Kerry R. Pearn,et al.  What can scenario modelling tell us about future European scale agricultural land use, and what not? , 2006 .

[27]  Roland Hiederer,et al.  Projected changes in mineral soil carbon of European forests, 1990–2100 , 2006 .

[28]  Jimmy R. Williams,et al.  Simulating soil C dynamics with EPIC: Model description and testing against long-term data , 2006 .

[29]  Robert J. A. Jones,et al.  Projected changes in mineral soil carbon of European croplands and grasslands, 1990–2080 , 2005, Global change biology.

[30]  T. Wrbka,et al.  How farming styles influence biodiversity maintenance in Austrian agricultural landscapes , 2005 .

[31]  E. Schmid,et al.  Phasing out of Environmentally Harmful Subsidies: Consequences of the 2003 CAP Reform , 2004 .

[32]  J. Eitzinger,et al.  Potential impact of climate change on selected agricultural crops in north‐eastern Austria , 2002 .

[33]  V. Singh,et al.  Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology , 1995 .

[34]  Bruce A. McCarl,et al.  Cropping Activities in Agricultural Sector Models: A Methodological Proposal , 1982 .

[35]  Mary C. Hill,et al.  Integrated environmental modeling: A vision and roadmap for the future , 2013, Environ. Model. Softw..

[36]  E. Schmid,et al.  Implications of agricultural bioenergy crop production in a land constrained economy – The example of Austria , 2013 .

[37]  Nils Gilman,et al.  Impacts of Climate Change , 2021, Introduction to Modern Climate Change.

[38]  V. Singh,et al.  The EPIC model. , 1995 .