Develop and Validate a Risk Score in Predicting Renal Failure in Focal Segmental Glomerulosclerosis

Introduction: The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk score (RS) for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in patients with focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS). Methods: Patient with biopsy-proven FSGS was enrolled. All the patients were allocated 1:1 to the two groups according to their baseline gender, age, and baseline creatinine level by using a stratified randomization method. ESKD was the primary endpoint. Results: We recruited 359 FSGS patients, and 177 subjects were assigned to group 1 and 182 to group 2. The clinicopathological variables were similar between two groups. There were 23 (13%) subjects reached to ESKD in group 1 and 22 (12.1%) in group 2. By multivariate Cox regression analyses, we established RS 1 and RS 2 in groups 1 and 2, respectively. RS 1 consists of five parameters including lower eGFR, higher urine protein, MAP, IgG level, and tubulointerstitial lesion (TIL) score; RS 2 also consists of five predictors including lower C3, higher MAP, IgG level, hemoglobin, and TIL score. RS 1 and RS 2 were cross-validated between these two groups, showing RS 1 had better performance in predicting 5-year ESKD in group 1 (c statics, 0.86 [0.74–0.98] vs. 0.82 [0.69–0.95]) and group 2 (c statics, 0.91 [0.83–0.99] vs. 0.89 [0.79–0.99]) compared to RS 2. We then stratified the risk factors into four groups, and Kaplan-Meier survival curve revealed that patients progressed to ESKD increased as risk levels increased. Conclusions: A predictive model incorporated clinicopathological feature was developed and validated for the prediction of ESKD in FSGS patients.