PARTICLE SWARM OPT ESTIMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND OF TURKEY

This paper presents an application of Optimization (PSO) technique to estimate energy Turkey, based on economic indicators. The economic indicators that are used during the model development are: gross nationa product (GNP), population, import and export figures of Turkey. Energy demand and other economic indicators in Turkey from 1979 to 2005 are considered as th e case of this study. The energy estimation model based on PSO (EEPSO) is forms (linear (EEPSOL) and quadratic (EE PSOQ) forecast energy demand in Turkey. PSOQ form fit solution due to fluctuations of the economic indicators. In order to show the accuracy of the algorit hm, some comparisons are made with previous studies which are using Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) and PSO. The future energy demand calculated under different scenarios. The relative errors of the proposed models are the lowest when they are compared with the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MENR) projection.

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