Energy Scenarios for East Asia: 2005-2025

The East Asian region is among the fastest-growing regions of the world and its share of the global economy and of energy use has increased substantially over the past 30 years. Thus, continued economic growth in East Asia will strongly affect the world demand for energy. The goal of this chapter is to provide several illustrative scenarios of economic development and energy use in the region. For this purpose the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model (Paltsev et al., 2005) is used. It is a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the global economy, and has been widely used to study climate change policy and its implications for energy system and technology development.

[1]  P. Crompton,et al.  Energy consumption in China: past trends and future directions , 2004 .

[2]  A. Maddison,et al.  The World economy :a millennial perspective , 2001 .

[3]  Sergey Paltsev,et al.  Modeling the Transport Sector: The Role of Existing Fuel Taxes in Climate Policy , 2004 .

[4]  Paul S. Armington.  A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production (Une théorie de la demande de produits différenciés d'après leur origine) (Una teoría de la demanda de productos distinguiéndolos según el lugar de producción) , 1969 .

[5]  Yochanan Shachmurove,et al.  Modeling and forecasting energy consumption in China: Implications for Chinese energy demand and imports in 2020 , 2008 .

[6]  A. Denny Ellerman,et al.  CO2 Emissions Limits: Economic Adjustments and the Distribution of Burdens , 1997 .

[7]  Robert McDougall,et al.  Global trade, assistance, and production : The GTAP 5 Data Base , 2002 .

[8]  G. Jefferson,et al.  What is driving China's decline in energy intensity? , 2004 .

[9]  Sergey Paltsev,et al.  European Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading: A System in Transition , 2007 .

[10]  Xingjun Zhao,et al.  Determinants of China's energy imports: An empirical analysis , 2007 .

[11]  John M. Reilly,et al.  Tax Distortions and Global Climate Policy , 2002 .

[12]  Sergey Paltsev,et al.  MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) Version 2: Model Description and Baseline Evaluation , 2005 .

[13]  ZhongXiang Zhang,et al.  Why Did the Energy Intensity Fall in China's Industrial Sector in the 1990s? The Relative Importance of Structural Change and Intensity Change , 2003 .

[14]  Jennifer F. Holak,et al.  Assessment of U.S. Cap-and-Trade Proposals , 2007 .

[15]  Sergey Paltsev,et al.  The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) Model: Version 4 , 2005 .

[16]  L. Hằng,et al.  The impacts of energy prices on energy intensity: Evidence from China , 2007 .

[17]  Shahid Yusuf,et al.  Dancing with Giants: China, India, and the Global Economy , 2007 .

[18]  Sergey Paltsev,et al.  Climate Change Taxes and Energy Efficiency in Japan , 2007 .

[19]  J. Melillo,et al.  Multi-gas assessment of the Kyoto Protocol , 1999, Nature.

[20]  G. Jefferson,et al.  Technology development and energy productivity in China , 2006 .