FREQUENCY OF COLLISION BETWEEN SHIPS AND PLATFORMS

A model for calculating the frequency of collision between passing vessels and offshore platforms has been developed. The model basically considers two factors; The expected number of vessels on a collision course with a platform and the probability that the vessel does not take any actions to avoid collision. The uncertainties associated with all the parameters, as well as the models, have been considered and probability distributions have been established. The uncertainties have been propagated through the model partly analytically but mainly by Monte-Carlo simulation. This has been used to investigate the uncertainties associated with the collision frequencies predicted by the model. The paper contains an example of calculations with the model, illustrating how the collision frequency is affected by variations in parameters in the model. The paper also emphasises the results from the uncertainty evaluation. The model predictions have also been compared with historical data from the North Sea.