Firearm Violence and Effects on Concealed Gun Carrying: Large Debate and Small Effects

Research has yet to identify a predictive relationship between crime and the issuance of aggregated concealed gun permits. The present study examines if a macro-level relationship exists between both concealed carry firearm applications and permits and violent crime committed with a firearm. Florida county-level data for concealed carry applications and violent crime are combined with police employment, socioeconomic, political, and firearm subculture variables across two temporal periods using both county and year fixed effects models. Unstandardized negative binomial regressions are employed with multiple alternative model specifications and diagnostic tests. Findings indicate a positive association between crime, especially those committed with a firearm, and concealed carry applications and permits. The effect size of firearm violent crime on concealed carry applications and permits is minimal. There is a demonstrable link between firearm violence and concealed carry applications and permits issued, net all covariates. Findings should be tempered by the minimal effect sizes.

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