Scenario Analyses of Road Transport Energy Demand: A Case Study of Ethanol as a Diesel Substitute in Thailand

Ethanol is conventionally used as a blend with gasoline due to its similar properties, especially the octane number. However, ethanol has also been explored and used as a diesel substitute. While a low-blend of ethanol with diesel is possible with use of an emulsifier additive, a high-blend of ethanol with diesel may require major adjustment of compression-ignition (CI) diesel engines. Since dedicated CI engines are commercially available for a high-blend ethanol in diesel (ED95), a fuel mixture comprised of 95% ethanol and 5% additive, this technology offers an option for an oil-importing country like Thailand to reduce its fossil import by use of its own indigenous bio-ethanol fuel. Among many strong campaigns on ethanol utilization in the transportation sector under Thailand’s Alternative Energy Strategic Plan (2008–2022), the Thai Ministry of Energy has, for the first time, conducted a demonstration project with ethanol (ED95) buses on the Thai road system. The current investigation thus aims to assess and quantify the impact of using this ED95 technology to reduce fossil diesel consumption by adjusting the commercially available energy demand model called the Long range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP). For this purpose, first, the necessary statistical data in the Thai transportation sector were gathered and analyzed to construct the predicative energy demand model. Then, scenario analyses were conducted to assess the benefit of ED95 technology on the basis of energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emission reduction.