Observed and predicted effects of climate change on species abundance in protected areas

Will networks of protected areas remain effective as the climate changes? Research into the response of bird populations to climate variance and change attempts to shed light on this issue. Results suggest that despite projected declines in many of the species investigated, most sites that are designated as EU Special Protection Areas in the UK can be expected to retain their conservation value and legal status.

[1]  Olivia E. LeDee,et al.  Climate change and spotted owls: potentially contrasting responses in the Southwestern United States , 2012 .

[2]  Kees Oosterbeek,et al.  Effects of climate change and variability on population dynamics in a long-lived shorebird. , 2010, Ecology.

[3]  F. Jiguet,et al.  Differences in the climatic debts of birds and butterflies at a continental scale , 2012 .

[4]  Gwyn Williams,et al.  Protected Areas and Climate Change; Reflections from a Practitioner’s Perspective , 2010 .

[5]  David L. Thomson,et al.  UK birds are laying eggs earlier , 1997, Nature.

[6]  Matthew D. Collins,et al.  UK Climate Projections Science Report: Climate Change Projections , 2009 .

[7]  P. Leadley,et al.  Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity. , 2012, Ecology letters.

[8]  Johannes Wahl,et al.  Climate change causes rapid changes in the distribution and site abundance of birds in winter , 2008 .

[9]  M. Dunlop,et al.  Implications of climate change for Australia's National Reserve System: a preliminary assessment , 2008 .

[10]  P. Jones,et al.  A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950-2006 , 2008 .

[11]  Kevin J. Gaston,et al.  Effects of scale and habitat on the relationship between regional distribution and local abundance , 1990 .

[12]  A. Cliquet,et al.  Adaptation to Climate Change Legal Challenges for Protected Areas , 2009 .

[13]  S. Andelman,et al.  Protected area needs in a changing climate , 2007 .

[14]  D. Noble,et al.  Birds of Conservation Concern 3 The population status of birds in the United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man , 2009 .

[15]  R. Gregory,et al.  International Conservation Policy Delivers Benefits for Birds in Europe , 2007, Science.

[16]  Richard Fox,et al.  Protected areas facilitate species’ range expansions , 2012, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[17]  B. Huntley,et al.  Potential Impacts of Climatic Change on European Breeding Birds , 2008, PloS one.

[18]  S. Newson,et al.  Modelling changes in species’ abundance in response to projected climate change , 2012 .

[19]  D. Scott,et al.  Climate change, biodiversity conservation and protected area planning in Canada , 2005 .

[20]  R. Furness,et al.  Heat stress in a high-latitude seabird: effects of temperature and food supply on bathing and nest attendance of great skuas Catharacta skua , 2008 .

[21]  R. Ohlemüller,et al.  Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of Climate Warming , 2011, Science.

[22]  F. Jiguet,et al.  An Indicator of the Impact of Climatic Change on European Bird Populations , 2009, PloS one.

[23]  J. Lebreton,et al.  Survival of Svalbard pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus in relation to winter climate, density and land-use. , 2006, The Journal of animal ecology.

[24]  Hugh P Possingham,et al.  Designing nature reserves in the face of uncertainty. , 2011, Ecology letters.

[25]  A. D. Fox,et al.  Rapid climate driven shifts in wintering distributions of three common waterbird species , 2013, Global change biology.

[26]  N. Aebischer,et al.  Parallel long-term trends across four marine trophic levels and weather , 1990, Nature.

[27]  D. Mehlman,et al.  The UK SPA network: Its Scope and Content , 2003 .

[28]  G. Walther.  Community and ecosystem responses to recent climate change , 2010, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[29]  Demography of Eurasian Golden Plovers Pluvialis apricaria staging in The Netherlands, 1949–2000 , 2005 .

[30]  Ken W. Smith,et al.  Performance of climate envelope models in retrodicting recent changes in bird population size from observed climatic change , 2008, Biology Letters.

[31]  G. Austin,et al.  Shifting nonbreeding distributions of migratory fauna in relation to climatic change , 2005 .

[32]  Hugh P Possingham,et al.  Theory for Designing Nature Reserves for Single Species , 2004, The American Naturalist.

[33]  Wilfried Thuiller,et al.  Climate change threatens European conservation areas , 2011, Ecology letters.

[34]  F. Jiguet,et al.  Population trends of European common birds are predicted by characteristics of their climatic niche , 2010 .

[35]  C. Perrins,et al.  Recent impacts of anthropogenic climate change on a higher marine predator in western Britain. , 2011 .

[36]  B. Huntley,et al.  Modelling relationships between species spatial abundance patterns and climate , 2012 .

[37]  M. Araújo,et al.  Choice of threshold alters projections of species range shifts under climate change , 2011 .

[38]  A. Gimona,et al.  Opening the climate envelope reveals no macroscale associations with climate in European birds , 2008, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[39]  R. Dennis Cook,et al.  Cross-Validation of Regression Models , 1984 .

[40]  S. Wanless,et al.  Regional and annual variation in black-legged kittiwake breeding productivity is related to sea surface temperature , 2007 .

[41]  Brian Huntley,et al.  Projected impacts of climate change on a continent-wide protected area network. , 2009, Ecology letters.

[42]  C. Thompson,et al.  Logic for Designing Nature Reserves for Multiple Species , 2006, The American Naturalist.