Muography as a new complementary tool in monitoring volcanic hazard: implications for early warning systems

Muography uses muons naturally produced in the interactions between cosmic rays and atmosphere for imaging and characterization of density differences and time-sequential changes in solid (e.g. rocks) and liquid (e.g. melts ± dissolved gases) materials in scales from tens of metres to up to a few kilometres. In addition to being useful in discovering the secrets of the pyramids, ore prospecting and surveillance of nuclear sites, muography successfully images the internal structure of volcanoes. Several field campaigns have demonstrated that muography can image density changes relating to magma ascent and descent, magma flow rate, magma degassing, the shape of the magma body, an empty conduit diameter, hydrothermal activity and major fault lines. In addition, muography is applied for long-term volcano monitoring in a few selected volcanoes around the world. We propose using muography in volcano monitoring in conjunction with other existing techniques for predicting volcanic hazards. This approach can provide an early indication of a possible future eruption and potentially the first estimate of its scale by producing direct evidence of magma ascent through its conduit in real time. Knowing these issues as early as possible buy critically important time for those responsible for the local alarm and evacuation protocols.

[1]  L. Oláh,et al.  Muographic monitoring of hydrogeomorphic changes induced by post-eruptive lahars and erosion of Sakurajima volcano , 2021, Scientific Reports.

[2]  Aaron C. Courville,et al.  Generative adversarial networks , 2020 .

[3]  Hiroyuki K. M. Tanaka.  Development of the muographic tephra deposit monitoring system , 2020, Scientific Reports.

[4]  G. Gallo,et al.  Muographic monitoring of the volcano-tectonic evolution of Mount Etna , 2020, Scientific Reports.

[5]  N. Hayashi,et al.  Pilot study of eruption forecasting with muography using convolutional neural network , 2020, Scientific Reports.

[6]  F. Giudicepietro,et al.  Muon radiography applied to volcanoes imaging: the MURAVES experiment at Mt. Vesuvius , 2020, Journal of Instrumentation.

[7]  D. Attié,et al.  Development of high-definition muon telescopes and muography of the Great Pyramid , 2019, Comptes Rendus Physique.

[8]  Takao Ohminato,et al.  Plug Formation Imaged Beneath the Active Craters of Sakurajima Volcano With Muography , 2019, Geophysical Research Letters.

[9]  A. Giammanco,et al.  Atmospheric muons as an imaging tool , 2019, Reviews in Physics.

[10]  Hoang Dai Nghia Nguyen,et al.  Search for electroweak diboson production in association with a high-mass dijet system in semileptonic final states in pp collisions at √s=13 TeV with the ATLAS detector , 2019, 1905.07714.

[11]  G. Varner,et al.  Borehole muography of subsurface reservoirs , 2018, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A.

[12]  R. Kaiser.  Muography: overview and future directions , 2018, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A.

[13]  Hiroyuki K. M. Tanaka.  Japanese volcanoes visualized with muography , 2018, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A.

[14]  L. Oláh,et al.  Investigation of the limits of high-definition muography for observation of Mt Sakurajima , 2018, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A.

[15]  Cynthia Rudin,et al.  Stop explaining black box machine learning models for high stakes decisions and use interpretable models instead , 2018, Nature Machine Intelligence.

[16]  D. Gibert,et al.  Abrupt changes of hydrothermal activity in a lava dome detected by combined seismic and muon monitoring , 2018, Scientific Reports.

[17]  P. Ledru,et al.  Muon Tomography Applied to a Dense Uranium Deposit at the McArthur River Mine , 2018, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth.

[18]  G. Gallo,et al.  The MEV project: Design and testing of a new high-resolution telescope for muography of Etna Volcano , 2018, Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research Section A: Accelerators, Spectrometers, Detectors and Associated Equipment.

[19]  A. Shimizu,et al.  Statistical analysis of dispersal and deposition patterns of volcanic emissions from Mt. Sakurajima, Japan , 2018 .

[20]  D. Rasmussen,et al.  When does eruption run-up begin? Multidisciplinary insight from the 1999 eruption of Shishaldin volcano , 2018 .

[21]  L. Oláh,et al.  High-definition and low-noise muography of the Sakurajima volcano with gaseous tracking detectors , 2018, Scientific Reports.

[22]  Caroline Bouvet de la Maisonneuve,et al.  Furthering the investigation of eruption styles through quantitative shape analyses of volcanic ash particles , 2017 .

[23]  Jean-Baptiste Mouret,et al.  Discovery of a big void in Khufu’s Pyramid by observation of cosmic-ray muons , 2017, Nature.

[24]  D. Gibert,et al.  Three‐dimensional density structure of La Soufrière de Guadeloupe lava dome from simultaneous muon radiographies and gravity data , 2017, 1707.02604.

[25]  L. Oláh,et al.  Investigation of soft component in cosmic ray detection , 2017 .

[26]  S. Carn,et al.  A decade of global volcanic SO2 emissions measured from space , 2017, Scientific Reports.

[27]  Bram van Ginneken,et al.  A survey on deep learning in medical image analysis , 2017, Medical Image Anal..

[28]  Hiroyuki K. M. Tanaka.  Instant snapshot of the internal structure of Unzen lava dome, Japan with airborne muography , 2016, Scientific Reports.

[29]  D. Gibert,et al.  DIAPHANE: muon tomography applied to volcanoes, civil engineering, archaelogy , 2016, 1612.03905.

[30]  Ryuichi Nishiyama,et al.  Monte Carlo simulation for background study of geophysical inspection with cosmic-ray muons , 2016 .

[31]  D. Gibert,et al.  Muon dynamic radiography of density changes induced by hydrothermal activity at the La Soufrière of Guadeloupe volcano , 2016, Scientific Reports.

[32]  C. Jackson,et al.  Lateral Magma Flow in Mafic Sill‐complexes , 2016 .

[33]  Scoap.  Muon reconstruction performance of the ATLAS detector in proton–proton collision data at s =13 TeV , 2016 .

[34]  Lucy Pearson,et al.  The UN Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030: Negotiation Process and Prospects for Science and Practice , 2015 .

[35]  M. Chu,et al.  A parametrization of the cosmic-ray muon flux at sea-level , 2015, 1509.06176.

[36]  José Luis Palma,et al.  Lahar infrasound associated with Volcán Villarrica's 3 March 2015 eruption , 2015 .

[37]  P. González,et al.  Real Time Tracking of Magmatic Intrusions by means of Ground Deformation Modeling during Volcanic Crises , 2015, Scientific Reports.

[38]  J. Pennec,et al.  Towards fast and routine analyses of volcanic ash morphometry for eruption surveillance applications , 2015 .

[39]  Hiroyuki K. M. Tanaka.  Muographic mapping of the subsurface density structures in Miura, Boso and Izu peninsulas, Japan , 2015, Scientific Reports.

[40]  R. Katz,et al.  A review of mechanical models of dike propagation: Schools of thought, results and future directions , 2015 .

[41]  Robert S. Anderson,et al.  Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards , 2014 .

[42]  T. Wilson,et al.  Integrating multidisciplinary science, modelling and impact data into evolving, syn-event volcanic hazard mapping and communication: A case study from the 2012 Tongariro eruption crisis, New Zealand , 2014 .

[43]  S. Carn,et al.  A comparison of satellite‐ and ground‐based measurements of SO2 emissions from Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador , 2014 .

[44]  R. Spence,et al.  Volcanic risk assessment: Quantifying physical vulnerability in the built environment , 2014 .

[45]  Hiroshi Shinohara,et al.  Radiographic visualization of magma dynamics in an erupting volcano , 2014, Nature Communications.

[46]  Willy P Aspinall,et al.  Retrospective analysis of uncertain eruption precursors at La Soufrière volcano, Guadeloupe, 1975–77: volcanic hazard assessment using a Bayesian Belief Network approach , 2014, Journal of Applied Volcanology.

[47]  P. LaFemina,et al.  Multidisciplinary observations of the 2011 explosive eruption of Telica volcano, Nicaragua: Implications for the dynamics of low-explosivity ash eruptions , 2014 .

[48]  P. Favali,et al.  Underwater geophysical monitoring for European Multidisciplinary Seafloor and water column Observatories , 2014 .

[49]  Dominique Gibert,et al.  Experimental detection of upward going cosmic particles and consequences for correction of density radiography of volcanoes , 2013 .

[50]  Hiroyuki K. M. Tanaka.  Subsurface density mapping of the earth with cosmic ray muons , 2013 .

[51]  J. Sartohadi,et al.  Lessons learned from the 2010 evacuations at Merapi volcano , 2013 .

[52]  F. Lavigne,et al.  Air traffic disturbance due to the 2010 Merapi volcano eruption , 2013 .

[53]  Maurizio Ripepe,et al.  Infrasound reveals transition to oscillatory discharge regime during lava fountaining: Implication for early warning , 2013 .

[54]  Zhehui Wang,et al.  Imaging a nuclear reactor using cosmic ray muons , 2013 .

[55]  David Alexander,et al.  Volcanic ash in the atmosphere and risks for civil aviation: A study in European crisis management , 2013, International Journal of Disaster Risk Science.

[56]  Warner Marzocchi,et al.  The scientific management of volcanic crises , 2012 .

[57]  Meike Rix,et al.  Volcanic SO2, BrO and plume height estimations using GOME‐2 satellite measurements during the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in May 2010 , 2012 .

[58]  A. Costa,et al.  Hazard assessment of far-range volcanic ash dispersal from a violent Strombolian eruption at Somma-Vesuvius volcano, Naples, Italy: implications on civil aviation , 2012, Bulletin of Volcanology.

[59]  Nolwenn Lesparre,et al.  Density muon radiography of La Soufrière of Guadeloupe volcano: comparison with geological, electrical resistivity and gravity data , 2012 .

[60]  C. Bonadonna,et al.  A fast GIS-based risk assessment for tephra fallout: the example of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador-Part II: vulnerability and risk assessment , 2012, Natural Hazards.

[61]  M. Lilley,et al.  Seafloor deformation and forecasts of the April 2011 eruption at Axial Seamount , 2012 .

[62]  M. Pimenta,et al.  A model for the transport of muons in extensive air showers , 2012, 1201.5294.

[63]  M. Ripepe,et al.  The 15 March 2007 explosive crisis at Stromboli volcano, Italy: Assessing physical parameters through a multidisciplinary approach , 2011 .

[64]  Maurizio Ripepe,et al.  Volcano infrasound: A review , 2011 .

[65]  Tomohisa Uchida,et al.  Cosmic muon imaging of hidden seismic fault zones: Rainwater permeation into the mechanical fractured zones in Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line, Japan , 2011 .

[66]  Clive Oppenheimer,et al.  Volcano surveillance using infrared cameras , 2011 .

[67]  A. Simpson,et al.  Volcanic threat in developing countries of the Asia–Pacific region: probabilistic hazard assessment, population risks, and information gaps , 2011 .

[68]  T. Menand.  Physical controls and depth of emplacement of igneous bodies: A review , 2011 .

[69]  Gaetana Ganci,et al.  The initial phases of the 2008–2009 Mount Etna eruption: A multidisciplinary approach for hazard assessment , 2011 .

[70]  Stephen Ison,et al.  A Fiasco of Volcanic Proportions? Eyjafjallajökull and the Closure of European Airspace , 2011 .

[71]  Nolwenn Lesparre,et al.  Geophysical muon imaging: feasibility and limits , 2010 .

[72]  A. Folch,et al.  Evaluating long-range volcanic ash hazard using supercomputing facilities: application to Somma-Vesuvius (Italy), and consequences for civil aviation over the Central Mediterranean Area , 2010 .

[73]  A. Tarantola,et al.  Muon tomography: Plans for observations in the Lesser Antilles , 2010 .

[74]  Tomohisa Uchida,et al.  Development of a portable assembly-type cosmic-ray muon module for measuring the density structure of a column of magma , 2010 .

[75]  Lieven Clarisse,et al.  Detection of volcanic SO2, ash, and H2SO4 using the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) , 2010 .

[76]  Luca Merucci,et al.  Volcanic ash and SO2 in the 2008 Kasatochi eruption: Retrievals comparison from different IR satellite sensors , 2010 .

[77]  G. Rolandi,et al.  Volcanic hazard at Vesuvius: An analysis for the revision of the current emergency plan , 2010 .

[78]  Marianne Guffanti,et al.  Volcanic hazards to airports , 2009 .

[79]  M. Coltelli,et al.  Monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes , 2009 .

[80]  Y. Aoki,et al.  Detecting a mass change inside a volcano by cosmic‐ray muon radiography (muography): First results from measurements at Asama volcano, Japan , 2009 .

[81]  V. Kudryavtsev,et al.  Empirical expressions for angular deviation of muons transmitted through slabs of iron, lead and uranium , 2009 .

[82]  Laura Beranzoli,et al.  a new Multidisciplinary Marine Monitoring system for the surveillance of Volcanic and seismic areas , 2009 .

[83]  Marie-Noëlle Bouin,et al.  A seafloor experiment to monitor vertical deformation at the Lucky Strike volcano, Mid-Atlantic Ridge , 2009 .

[84]  Tomohisa Uchida,et al.  Cosmic‐ray muon imaging of magma in a conduit: Degassing process of Satsuma‐Iwojima Volcano, Japan , 2009 .

[85]  Tom Mitchell,et al.  Framing volcanic risk communication within disaster risk reduction: finding ways for the social and physical sciences to work together , 2008 .

[86]  Jonathan M. Lees,et al.  Eruption dynamics of the SW crater of Stromboli volcano, Italy — An interdisciplinary approach , 2008 .

[87]  Daniele Andronico,et al.  Characterizing high energy explosive eruptions at Stromboli volcano using multidisciplinary data: An example from the 9 January 2005 explosion , 2008 .

[88]  Mathew C Schmidtlein,et al.  A Sensitivity Analysis of the Social Vulnerability Index , 2008, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[89]  A. J. Hale.  Lava dome growth and evolution with an independently deformable talus , 2008 .

[90]  Jean-Christophe Gaillard,et al.  Alternative paradigms of volcanic risk perception: The case of Mt Pinatubo in the Philippines , 2008 .

[91]  G. Woo.  Probabilistic criteria for volcano evacuation decisions , 2008 .

[92]  R. Tilling,et al.  Scientific and public responses to the ongoing volcanic crisis at Popocatépetl Volcano, Mexico: Importance of an effective hazards-warning system , 2008 .

[93]  Hiroshi Tsuji,et al.  High resolution imaging in the inhomogeneous crust with cosmic-ray muon radiography: The density structure below the volcanic crater floor of Mt. Asama, Japan , 2007 .

[94]  T. Nakano,et al.  Imaging the conduit size of the dome with cosmic‐ray muons: The structure beneath Showa‐Shinzan Lava Dome, Japan , 2007 .

[95]  J. Hoerandel.  The origin of galactic cosmic rays , 2007, 0710.4909.

[96]  C. Kilburn,et al.  Maximum warning times for imminent volcanic eruptions , 2005 .

[97]  D. Dingwell,et al.  Field-based density measurements as tool to identify preeruption dome structure: set-up and first results from Unzen volcano, Japan , 2005 .

[98]  T. Takahashi,et al.  ISRM Suggested Methods for land geophysics in rock engineering , 2004 .

[99]  T. Koyaguchi,et al.  Sequence and eruptive style of the 1783 eruption of Asama Volcano, central Japan: a case study of an andesitic explosive eruption generating fountain-fed lava flow, pumice fall, scoria flow and forming a cone , 2004 .

[100]  Catherine Annen,et al.  THE IMPACT OF VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS DURING THE 1990S , 2003 .

[101]  K. Kazahaya,et al.  Degassing process of Satsuma-Iwojima volcano, Japan: Supply of volatile components from a deep magma chamber , 2002 .

[102]  W. Chadwick,et al.  Direct observation of a submarine volcanic eruption from a sea-floor instrument caught in a lava flow , 2001, Nature.

[103]  D. Groom,et al.  MUON STOPPING POWER AND RANGE TABLES 10 MeV–100 TeV , 2001 .

[104]  E. al.,et al.  Electron, muon, and hadron lateral distributions measured in air showers by the KASCADE experiment , 2000, astro-ph/0004233.

[105]  Jean-Claude Thouret,et al.  Urban hazards and risks; consequences of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions: an introduction , 1999 .

[106]  J. Gaillard,et al.  Analysis of the institutional and social responses to the eruption and the lahars of Mount Pinatubo volcano from 1991 to 1998 (Central Luzon, Philippines) , 1999 .

[107]  Jürgen Schmidhuber,et al.  Long Short-Term Memory , 1997, Neural Computation.

[108]  Roberto Scarpa,et al.  Monitoring and Mitigation of Volcano Hazards , 1996 .

[109]  M. Iwasaki,et al.  Method of probing inner-structure of geophysical substance with the horizontal cosmic-ray muons and possible application to volcanic eruption prediction , 1995 .

[110]  Robert I. Tilling,et al.  Volcanic hazards and their mitigation: Progress and problems , 1989 .

[111]  E. E. F. d'Albe,et al.  Objectives of volcanic monitoring and prediction , 1979 .

[112]  E. M. Fournier d'Albe.  Objectives of volcanic monitoring and prediction , 1979, Journal of the Geological Society.

[113]  I. Introduction , 1970, The Structure of Leaves of Grass.

[114]  D. A. Quarles,et al.  Progress and problems , 1953, Electrical Engineering.

[115]  E. Cottrell,et al.  Earth's Volcanoes and Their Eruptions: An Overview , 2015 .

[116]  Pablo J. González,et al.  Detailed multidisciplinary monitoring reveals pre- and co-eruptive signals at Nyamulagira volcano (North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo) , 2013, Bulletin of Volcanology.

[117]  T. Wilson,et al.  Volcanic ash impacts on critical infrastructure , 2012 .

[118]  A. Dell'Acqua,et al.  Geant4 - A simulation toolkit , 2003 .

[119]  Stephen R. McNutt,et al.  Seismic Monitoring and Eruption Forecasting of Volcanoes: A Review of the State-of-the-Art and Case Histories , 1996 .

[120]  Bernard A. Chouet,et al.  New Methods and Future Trends in Seismological Volcano Monitoring , 1996 .

[121]  K. Wasserman,et al.  Overview and future directions. , 1990, Circulation.