The size, size distribution and stability of colloidal nanoparticles are greatly affected by the presence of capping ligands. Despite the key contribution of capping ligands during the synthesis reaction, their role in regulating the nucleation and growth rates of colloidal nanoparticles is not well understood. In this work, we demonstrate a mechanistic investigation of the role of trioctylphosphine (TOP) in Pd nanoparticles in different solvents (toluene and pyridine) using in situ SAXS and ligand-based kinetic modeling. Our results under different synthetic conditions reveal the overlap of nucleation and growth of Pd nanoparticles during the reaction, which contradicts the LaMer-type nucleation and growth model. The model accounts for the kinetics of Pd-TOP binding for both, the precursor and the particle surface, which is essential to capture the size evolution as well as the concentration of particles in situ. In addition, we illustrate the predictive power of our ligand-based model through designing the synthetic conditions to obtain nanoparticles with desired sizes. The proposed methodology can be applied to other synthesis systems and therefore serves as an effective strategy for predictive synthesis of colloidal nanoparticles.