Mutation Probability Threshold of HIV for AIDS

As a theory on a deciding factor leading to AIDS, "antigenic diversity threshold theory" has been offered by Nowak et al. This theory mentions AIDS develops when a number of mutant strains from a single HIV swells through mutations over a fixed critical number. Mutation is mainly due to transcription errors by a reverse transcriptase. Existing HIV models assume the transcription error probability (i.e. mutation probability of HIV) is constant. However it being considered the reverse transcriptase builds its gene into HIV genes as its operand, it would be natural to guess the transcription error probability varies at each transcription. Hence, this study proposes a HIV dynamical model factoring into the mechanism of HIV mutating its mutation probability. Along with earlier studies this study discusses the subject of the antigenic diversity threshold and demonstrates the proposed model has a threshold with the minimal mutation probability influencing development of AIDS.