Residual Life Prediction of Multistage Manufacturing Processes With Interaction Between Tool Wear and Product Quality Degradation

Multistage manufacturing processes (MMPs) usually exhibit an interactive relationship between tool wear and product quality degradation. On one hand, the tool wear in a stage may result in the quality degradation of the products fabricated on that stage. On the other hand, the quality degradation at a preceding stage may lead to the change of the operational condition and thus affect the tool wear in subsequent stages. This interaction needs to be considered to accurately predict the residual life distribution (RLD) of MMPs, which will benefit condition-based maintenance and tool inventory management. In this paper, we propose an interaction model that utilizes a linear model to represent the impact of tool wear on quality degradation and a stochastic differential equation model to capture the impact of quality degradation on the instantaneous rate of tool wear. We then propose a Bayesian framework that incorporates real-time quality measurements to online update the RLD of MMPs. Our methodology is a generalization of an existing “QR-chain model,” which is dedicated into a similar research and application area. We conduct numerical studies to test the performance of our methodology and compare with the QR-chain model. The results show that our methodology outperforms the QR-chain model through capturing the impact of quality degradation on the process of tool wear and incorporating real-time quality measurements.

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