The demand for public transport: a practical guide

The guide, produced by a consortium comprising TRL and partners from academia and the commercial transport industry, on behalf of the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) describes how various factors influence the demand for public transport. The new guide updates the 1980 TRL publication ?The Demand for Public Transport? and should provide a vital reference source to key stakeholders, such as public transport operators and central and local government. In 1980 the then Transport and Road Research Laboratory, now TRL, published the original international collaborative report which for over twenty years has been the seminal piece of work on demand evaluation in setting out the factors affecting public transport patronage at the time. However the values of many of the parameters under consideration have changed, new methodologies and concepts have emerged and the institutional, socio-economic, environmental and legal framework is substantially different. In reviewing the publication, TRL worked with science based partners, the Transport Studies Unit - University of Oxford ; Institute for Transport Studies - University of Leeds ; Transport Studies Group - University of Westminster and the Centre for Transport Studies - University College London. Industrial based support came from The Association of Train Operating Companies, the Confederation of Passenger Transport, the Rees Jeffreys Road Fund, the Greater Manchester Public Transport Executive and public transport operators. Analysis and research by using primary and secondary data sources on the factors influencing the demand for public transport was pursued to produce a document that assists in identifying cost-effective schemes for improving services. The project involved the identification of data sources and initial analysis of overall trends in the bus and rail industries in Britain , and the analysis of the effects of fares, service quality, incomes, car ownership, land use, population, employment and wider transport policies on public transport demand.

[1]  D. McFadden.  MEASUREMENT OF URBAN TRAVEL DEMAND , 1974 .

[2]  Claude Jean Arnaud,et al.  Method for introduction , 1975 .

[3]  R. L. Knight,et al.  Evidence of land use impacts of rapid transit systems , 1977 .

[4]  Nils Bruzelius,et al.  The value of travel time: Theory and measurement , 1979 .

[5]  R. L. Knight.  The impact of rail transit on land use: Evidence and a change of perspective , 1980 .

[6]  Vukan R Vuchic,et al.  Urban Public Transportation: Systems and Technology , 1981 .

[7]  Gerald K. Miller,et al.  Raising commuter parking prices — An empirical study , 1982 .

[8]  P H Collins.  THE EFFECT OF RECENT LONDON TRANSPORT FARES CHANGES , 1982 .

[9]  D Hensher,et al.  APPLICATION OF MULTINOMIAL PROBIT TO A TWO-PERIOD PANEL DATA SET. IN: URBAN TRANSPORT , 1982 .

[10]  M. E. Beesley,et al.  Cost Benefit Analysis and London's Transport Policies , 1983 .

[11]  L. R. Kadiyali,et al.  Value of travel time savings , 1983 .

[12]  Roger Mackett.  THE IMPACT OF TRANSPORT POLICY ON THE CITY , 1984 .

[13]  M W Pickett.  THE EFFECT OF THE TYNE AND WEAR METRO ON RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY VALUES , 1984 .

[14]  R Sheldon,et al.  REAL TIME INFORMATION FOR BUS TRAVELLERS IN LONDON , 1985 .

[15]  EXAMINING RECENT TRANSIT FARE INNOVATIONS IN THE US , 1985 .

[16]  Stated Preference Techniques in Measuring Travel Elasticities , 1985 .

[17]  A S Fowkes,et al.  Understanding trends in inter‐city rail traffic in Great Britain , 1985 .

[18]  S. Owens.  Energy, planning, and urban form , 1986 .

[19]  CONCESSIONARY FARES AND PENSIONERS' TRAVEL PATTERNS: AN ANALYSIS BASED ON THE 1978/9 NATIONAL TRAVEL SURVEY , 1986 .

[20]  N James.  THE PROVISION OF REAL-TIME DEPARTURE INFORMATION FOR PASSENGERS AT A RAIL-BUS INTERCHANGE , 1986 .

[21]  W. Bruce Allen,et al.  A time series analysis of monthly ridership for an urban rail rapid transit line , 1986 .

[22]  Arun Chatterjee,et al.  EFFECTS OF FARE AND OTHER FACTORS ON EXPRESS BUS RIDERSHIP IN A MEDIUM-SIZED URBAN AREA , 1987 .

[23]  Jeffrey Kenworthy,et al.  Transport and urban form in thirty two of the world's principal cities , 1991 .

[24]  Michael Kyte,et al.  A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC TRANSIT RIDERSHIP IN PORTLAND, OREGON, 1971-1982 , 1988 .

[25]  Anthony D. May,et al.  Transport policy for London in 2001 The case for an integrated approach , 1989 .

[26]  MARKET SEGMENTATION OF TRANSIT FARE ELASTICITIES , 1989 .

[27]  P. Goodwin,et al.  Family changes and public transport use 1984–1987 , 1989 .

[28]  Dynamic estimation of public transport demand elasticities , 1990 .

[29]  P. Yates,et al.  PUBLIC TRANSPORT PATRONAGE TRENDS IN NEW ZEALAND: WHERE ARE ALL THE PASSENGERS GOING? , 1990 .

[30]  P R White,et al.  THE SCOPE FOR RIDERSHIP GROWTH ON MINIBUSES: RESULTS OF PASSENGER SURVEYS , 1990 .

[31]  Peter Jones,et al.  Developments in dynamic and activity-based approaches to travel analysis , 1990 .

[32]  Richard Willson,et al.  Parking subsidies and travel choices: Assessing the evidence , 1990 .

[33]  FARES ELASTICITIES FOR UNDERGROUND TRAVEL , 1991 .

[34]  FORECASTING INTER-MODAL INTERACTION , 1991 .

[35]  J. M. Preston.  Passenger Demand Forecasting for New Rail Services – Manual of Advice , 1992 .

[36]  P. Goodwin.  A REVIEW OF NEW DEMAND ELASTICITIES WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO SHORT AND LONG RUN EFFECTS OF PRICE CHANGES , 1992 .

[37]  C K Orski.  CONGESTION PRICING: PROMISE AND LIMITATIONS , 1992 .

[38]  T. Oum,et al.  CONCEPTS OF PRICE ELASTICITIES OF TRANSPORT DEMAND AND RECENT EMPIRICAL ESTIMATES: AN INTERPRETATIVE SURVEY. IN: URBAN TRANSPORT , 1992 .

[39]  T. Higgins.  Parking taxes: Effectiveness, legality and implementation, some general considerations , 1992 .

[40]  John Preston,et al.  URBAN TRANSPORT MARKET THEORETICAL ANALYSIS. , 1993 .

[41]  C Curtis,et al.  RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AND CAR-BASED TRAVEL: DOES LOCATION MAKE A DIFFERENCE? , 1994 .

[42]  K Janssen,et al.  VALUATION OF TRAVEL TIME AND INFORMATION - WITH AND WITHOUT USE OF THE TIMETABLE , 1994 .

[43]  REDUCING THE NEED TO TRAVEL THROUGH LAND USE PLANNING POLICIES: A STUDY OF FACILITY PROVISION ON NEW RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS , 1994 .

[44]  Robert Cervero,et al.  TRANSIT-BASED HOUSING IN CALIFORNIA: EVIDENCE ON RIDERSHIP IMPACTS , 1994 .

[45]  F Ramjerdi,et al.  CHAPTER 6. AN EVALUATION OF THE IMPACT OF THE OSLO TOLL SCHEME ON TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR , 1995 .

[46]  R. Dunphy.  REVIEW OF RECENT AMERICAN LIGHT RAIL EXPERIENCES , 1995 .

[47]  Sally Cairns,et al.  TRAVEL FOR FOOD SHOPPING: THE FOURTH SOLUTION. , 1995 .

[48]  Lars-Göran Mattsson,et al.  From Theory and Policy Analysis to the Implementation of Road Pricing: The Stockholm Region in the 1990s , 1995 .

[49]  Graham. Parkhurst.  The economic and modal-split impacts of short-range park and ride schemes: Evidence from nine UK cities , 1996 .

[50]  A. Chin.  CONTAINING AIR POLLUTION AND TRAFFIC CONGESTION: TRANSPORT POLICY AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN SINGAPORE , 1996 .

[51]  M Brown,et al.  RAIL MARKET RESEARCH IN THE CIS , 1996 .

[52]  George Barrett.  The Transport Dimension , 1996 .

[53]  David J Edwards,et al.  BUS TRAVEL TRENDS IN THE U.K.. , 1996 .

[54]  M Pursula,et al.  VALUE OF TIME RESEARCH IN FINLAND , 1996 .

[55]  Eric J. Miller,et al.  Urban Form, Energy and the Environment: A Review of Issues, Evidence and Policy , 1996 .

[56]  John Glen,et al.  THE IMPACT OF A LIGHT RAIL SYSTEM ON THE STRUCTURE OF HOUSE PRICES: A HEDONIC LONGITUDINAL STUDY. , 1996 .

[57]  The local bus market : a case study of regulatory change , 1996 .

[58]  M. Wardman,et al.  Disaggregate Inter-Urban Mode Choice Models: A review of British Evidence with special Reference to Cross Elasticities. , 1997 .

[59]  R. Cervero,et al.  TWENTY YEARS OF THE BAY AREA RAPID TRANSIT SYSTEM: LAND USE AND DEVELOPMENT IMPACTS , 1997 .

[60]  D. Hensher,et al.  IMPOSING SYMMETRY ON A COMPLETE MATRIX OF COMMUTER TRAVEL ELASTICITIES. , 1997 .

[61]  D. Shoup.  Evaluating the effects of cashing out employer-paid parking: Eight case studies , 1997 .

[62]  MODELLING BUILD-UP OF DEMAND FOR NEW TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE , 1997 .

[63]  National Multi-Modal Travel Forecasts: Aggregate Elasticities from Published Great Britain Transport Statistics. , 1997 .

[64]  D Wofinden,et al.  THE ROLE OF PARKING STANDARDS IN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT , 1997 .

[65]  S Whitfield,et al.  THE TRAVEL EFFECTS OF PARK AND RIDE , 1998 .

[66]  R J Balcombe,et al.  EVALUATION OF LOW-FLOOR BUS TRIALS IN LONDON AND NORTH TYNESIDE , 1998 .

[67]  R J Balcombe,et al.  INFORMATION FOR BUS PASSENGERS: A STUDY OF NEEDS AND PRIORITIES , 1998 .

[68]  H F Gunn.  ANTONIN: A FORECASTING MODEL FOR TRVEL DEMAND IN THE ILE-DE-FRANCE , 1998 .

[69]  P. Nijkamp,et al.  Meta-analysis for Explaining the Variance in Public Transport Demand Elasticities in Europe , 1998 .

[70]  Evaluation of transport policy options using welfare as an indicator , 1998 .

[71]  The economic and environmental roles of park and ride , 1998 .

[72]  Mark Wardman,et al.  A REVIEW OF BRITISH EVIDENCE ON THE VALUATIONS OF TIME AND SERVICE QUALITY , 1998 .

[73]  Transport Investment and Urban Regeneration in a Provincial City: Sheffield, 1992–96 , 1999 .

[74]  Peter Hall,et al.  Sustainable Cities or Town Cramming , 1999 .

[75]  ISOTOPE - improved structure and organisation for urban transport operations of passengers in Europe , 1999 .

[76]  Supertram monitoring study: Final report , 1999 .

[77]  R B Diaz,et al.  IMPACTS OF RAIL TRANSIT ON PROPERTY VALUES , 1999 .

[78]  H Titheridge,et al.  Land Use, Transport and People – Identifying the Connections in Achieving Sustainable Urban Form , 1999 .

[79]  G G Daugherty.  A COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT OF MAJOR BUS PRIORITY SCHEMES IN GREAT BRITAIN , 1999 .

[80]  Graham. Parkhurst,et al.  Influence of bus-based park and ride facilities on users’ car traffic , 2000 .

[81]  Peter W. Newton,et al.  Urban form and environmental performance , 2000 .

[82]  Mark Wardman,et al.  Rail network accessibility and the demand for inter-urban rail travel , 2000 .

[83]  The economic and environmental effects of local bus service deregulation in Britain , 2000 .

[84]  Simon Shepherd,et al.  Optimal transport strategies for European cities , 2000 .

[85]  S. Proost,et al.  Parking Policies and Road Pricing , 2000 .

[86]  Stephen Glaister,et al.  A New Fares Contract for London , 2000 .

[87]  Javier Asensio.  The success story of Spanish suburban railways: determinants of demand and policy implications , 2000 .

[88]  R L Mackett,et al.  HOW TO MAKE NEW URBAN LIGHT RAIL SYSTEMS MORE SUCCESSFUL: A POLICY-BASED TECHNIQUE , 2001 .

[89]  Moshe Ben-Akiva,et al.  Recent Evidence on Car Cost and Time Elasticities of Travel Demand in Europe , 2001 .

[90]  D. Stead.  Relationships between Land Use, Socioeconomic Factors, and Travel Patterns in Britain , 2001 .

[91]  J. Cooper,et al.  Energy Trade-offs and Market Responses in Transport and Residential Land-use Patterns: Promoting Sustainable Development Policy , 2001 .

[92]  Antonio Pratelli,et al.  A mathematical programming model for the bus deviation route problem , 2001, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[93]  Roger Mackett,et al.  Enhancing the success of light rail systems , 2001 .

[94]  Concessionary fares in Britain: what we need to know , 2002 .

[95]  Joyce Dargay,et al.  The demand for local bus services in England , 2002 .

[96]  P. Goodwin,et al.  DISAPPEARING TRAFFIC? THE STORY SO FAR , 2002 .

[97]  J. Raymond,et al.  Redistributive effects of subsidies to urban public transport in Spain , 2003 .

[98]  Roger Mackett,et al.  NEW URBAN RAIL SYSTEMS: A POLICY-BASED TECHNIQUE TO MAKE THEM MORE SUCCESSFUL. , 2003 .

[99]  C Hass-Klau,et al.  BUS OR LIGHT RAIL: MAKING THE RIGHT CHOICE - A FINANCIAL, OPERATIONAL AND DEMAND COMPARISON OF LIGHT RAIL, GUIDED BUSES, BUSWAYS AND BUS LANES , 2004 .

[100]  Mark Wardman,et al.  Public transport values of time , 2004 .

[101]  Christian Duffin.  Routes to success. , 2005, Nursing standard (Royal College of Nursing (Great Britain) : 1987).