An analytical method for constructing a probabilistic model of a wind farm

This paper introduces a new method to model the output power of wind farms in reliability evaluation. The proposed model is presented in terms of capacity outage probability table (COPT) considering the mechanical failure of wind turbine generators (WTG) and the correlation between the outputs of turbines on the same farm. Normal convolution methods are not applicable because the correlation between the turbines. Based on the proposed model, the COPT of wind farm has been constructed and applied on the IEEE RTS-79 to calculate the well known reliability indices. Furthermore, a comparison of the reliability indices with and without considering the mechanical failures of WTG is shown. The results indicate the importance of inclusion WTG mechanical availability in estimating reliability of wind power. The results were validated using Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed model reduces the complexity of using analytical methods, and provides accuracy for the estimation of reliability indices.

[1]  Li Lin,et al.  Investigation of the strategy of wind farm power regulation considering system frequency regulation demand , 2011, 2011 4th International Conference on Electric Utility Deregulation and Restructuring and Power Technologies (DRPT).

[2]  David Hawkins,et al.  INCORPORATION OF WIND POWER RESOURCES INTO THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY MARKET , 2005 .

[3]  J. R. Ubeda,et al.  Reliability and production assessment of wind energy production connected to the electric network supply , 1999 .

[4]  Bo Yuan,et al.  An overview on peak regulation of wind power integrated power systems , 2011, 2011 4th International Conference on Electric Utility Deregulation and Restructuring and Power Technologies (DRPT).

[5]  Wenyuan Li,et al.  Reliability Assessment of Electric Power Systems Using Monte Carlo Methods , 1994 .

[6]  S.S. Venkata,et al.  Wind energy explained: Theory, Design, and application [Book Review] , 2003, IEEE Power and Energy Magazine.

[7]  Hao Si-peng,et al.  Equivalent wind speed model in wind farm dynamic analysis , 2011, 2011 4th International Conference on Electric Utility Deregulation and Restructuring and Power Technologies (DRPT).

[8]  R. Billinton,et al.  Adequacy Assessment Considerations in Wind Integrated Power Systems , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[9]  G. Papaefthymiou,et al.  MCMC for Wind Power Simulation , 2008, IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion.

[10]  R. Billinton,et al.  Digital Computer Algobithms for the Calculation of Generating Capacity Reliability Indices , 1982, IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems.

[11]  J. Lobry,et al.  System Reliability Assessment Method for Wind Power Integration , 2008, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[12]  Roy Billinton,et al.  Adequacy assessment of generating systems containing wind power considering wind speed correlation , 2009 .

[13]  Roy Billinton,et al.  Digital Computer Algobithms for the Calculation of Generating Capacity Reliability Indices , 1982 .

[14]  Paul Giorsetto,et al.  Development of a New Procedure for Reliability Modeling of Wind Turbine Generators , 1983, IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems.

[15]  Dr. Péter Kádár.  Evaluation of Correlation the Wind Speed Measurements and Wind Turbine Characteristics , 2007 .

[16]  R.F.M. Brandao,et al.  Forced outage time analysis of a portuguese wind farm , 2009, 2009 44th International Universities Power Engineering Conference (UPEC).

[17]  Damian Flynn,et al.  Modelling the Impact of Wind Power Fluctuations on the Load following Capability of an Isolated Thermal Power System , 2000 .

[18]  L. Bertling,et al.  Reliability-Centered Maintenance for Wind Turbines Based on Statistical Analysis and Practical Experience , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion.

[19]  Magdy M. A. Salama,et al.  Adequacy assessment of distributed generation systems using Monte Carlo Simulation , 2003 .