Short-term traffic prediction using fuzzy c-means and cellular automata in a wide-area road network

In this paper, we propose a short-term prediction method for forecasting traffic in a time-series manner for up to one hour ahead for all roads in a wide-area road network. The results of our research enable traffic to be simulated for a wide-area road network based on actual traffic data by combining fuzzy clustering and cellular automata. On application to an actual road network with 3,405 links, the proposed technique was found to be superior to the nearest neighborhood method for traffic prediction at times of congestion outbreak and alleviation and heavy congestion.

[1]  Hitoshi Kanoh,et al.  Traffic flow simulation using cellular automata under non-equilibrium environment , 2001, 2001 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics. e-Systems and e-Man for Cybernetics in Cyberspace (Cat.No.01CH37236).

[2]  Michael Schreckenberg,et al.  A cellular automaton model for freeway traffic , 1992 .

[3]  Hitoshi Kanoh,et al.  REAL-TIME ROUTE SELECTION USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS FOR CAR NAVIGATION SYSTEMS , 2000 .

[4]  Bin Ran,et al.  Fuzzy-Neural Network Traffic Prediction Framework with Wavelet Decomposition , 2003 .

[5]  Baher Abdulhai,et al.  Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Using Neuro-Genetic Algorithms , 2002, J. Intell. Transp. Syst..

[6]  Kai Nagel,et al.  LARGE-SCALE TRAFFIC SIMULATIONS FOR TRANSPORTATION PLANNING , 2000 .

[7]  Henry X. Liu,et al.  Short Term Traffic Forecasting Using the Local Linear Regression Model , 2002 .

[8]  Susan Grant-Muller,et al.  Use of sequential learning for short-term traffic flow forecasting , 2001 .

[9]  Hitoshi Kanoh,et al.  Route guidance with unspecified staging posts using genetic algorithm for car navigation systems , 2000, ITSC2000. 2000 IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems. Proceedings (Cat. No.00TH8493).

[10]  Sherif Ishak,et al.  Performance evaluation of short-term time-series traffic prediction model , 2002 .

[11]  Roland Chrobok,et al.  Different methods of traffic forecast based on real data , 2004, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[12]  Hitoshi Kanoh,et al.  Evaluation of GA-based dynamic route guidance for car navigation using cellular automata , 2002, Intelligent Vehicle Symposium, 2002. IEEE.

[13]  Michael J Demetsky,et al.  TRAFFIC FLOW FORECASTING: COMPARISON OF MODELING APPROACHES , 1997 .

[14]  Sigurdur F. Hafstein,et al.  Traffic Forecast in Large Scale Freeway Networks , 2004, Int. J. Bifurc. Chaos.