Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Improvised Explosive Device Attacks That Cause Significant Building Damage

AbstractMost vulnerability assessments assume that an improvised explosive device (IED) will reach maximum TNT equivalency, and that the IED will successfully detonate. These assumptions will tend to overestimate actual blast-load effects. The paper develops an IED probabilistic risk-assessment model using a systems model for IED attacks based on the reliability of IEDs and by characterizing the human aspects of an IED attack’s operational effectiveness from existing databases of terrorist incidents. The analysis includes estimates of the probability of threat, hazard, and loss for large commercial buildings in the United States. It was found that annual fatality risk for building occupants is similar to acceptable risk criteria. This suggests that strengthening buildings against progressive collapse may not be warranted unless there is a specific threat against a building.

[1]  Mark G. Stewart,et al.  Security risks and probabilistic risk assessment of glazing subject to explosive blast loading , 2008, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[2]  Bruce R. Ellingwood,et al.  Mitigating Risk from Abnormal Loads and Progressive Collapse , 2006 .

[3]  Max Abrahms,et al.  Why Terrorism Does Not Work , 2006, International Security.

[4]  Alec D. Barker.  Improvised Explosive Devices in Southern Afghanistan and Western Pakistan, 2002–2009 , 2011 .

[5]  M. Stewart,et al.  Evaluating counterterrorism spending , 2014 .

[6]  Christopher D. Eamon.  Reliability of Concrete Masonry Unit Walls Subjected to Explosive Loads , 2007 .

[7]  Bruce R. Ellingwood.  Strategies for mitigating risk to buildings from abnormal load events , 2007 .

[8]  Richard G. Little,et al.  Cost-effective Strategies to Address Urban Terrorism: A Risk Management Approach , 2007 .

[9]  P D Smith,et al.  Blast loading and building robustness , 2002 .

[10]  Hong Hao,et al.  RC Column Failure Probabilities to Blast Loads , 2010 .

[11]  Walter Enders,et al.  Measuring the Economic Costs of Terrorism , 2012 .

[12]  Mark G. Stewart,et al.  Acceptable Risk Criteria for Infrastructure Protection , 2010 .

[13]  Denis Kelliher,et al.  Stochastic representation of blast load damage in a reinforced concrete building , 2012 .

[14]  Mark G. Stewart,et al.  Life-safety risks and optimisation of protective measures against terrorist threats to infrastructure , 2011 .

[15]  N. Null.  Minimum Design Loads for Buildings and Other Structures , 2003 .

[16]  H. Smithline,et al.  Mass casualty terrorist bombings: a comparison of outcomes by bombing type. , 2004, Annals of Emergency Medicine.

[17]  A. Steven Dietz.  Countering the effects of IED systems in Afghanistan: an integral approach , 2011 .

[18]  Hong Hao,et al.  Reliability analysis of direct shear and flexural failure modes of RC slabs under explosive loading , 2002 .

[19]  J. Mueller,et al.  Assessing Measures Designed to Protect the Homeland , 2010 .

[20]  M. P. Byfield.  Behavior and Design of Commercial Multistory Buildings Subjected to Blast , 2006 .

[21]  Hiromitsu Kumamoto,et al.  Probabilistic Risk Assessment , 1996 .

[22]  Mark G. Stewart,et al.  Cost Effectiveness of Risk Mitigation Strategies for Protection of Buildings against Terrorist Attack , 2008 .

[23]  Mark G. Stewart,et al.  A systems model for probabilistic risk assessment of improvised explosive device attacks , 2012, Int. J. Intell. Def. Support Syst..

[24]  Robert E. Melchers,et al.  Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Engineering Systems , 1997 .

[25]  Ferenc Jordán.  Predicting target selection by terrorists: a network analysis of the 2005 London underground attacks , 2008, Int. J. Crit. Infrastructures.

[26]  Ivan Sascha Sheehan.  Assessing and Comparing Data Sources for Terrorism Research , 2012 .

[27]  R. Shankar Nair,et al.  Preventing disproportionate collapse , 2006 .

[28]  Max Abrahms,et al.  What Terrorists Really Want: Terrorist Motives and Counterterrorism Strategy , 2008, International Security.

[29]  Mark G. Stewart,et al.  Spatial reliability analysis of explosive blast load damage to reinforced concrete columns , 2015 .

[30]  Paul F. Mlakar,et al.  The Oklahoma City Bombing: Summary and Recommendations for Multihazard Mitigation , 1998 .

[31]  Robert H. Sues,et al.  Reliability-based design methods for protective structures☆ , 1994 .

[32]  Mark G. Stewart,et al.  Balancing the Risks, Benefits, and Costs of Homeland Security , 2011 .

[33]  Hong Hao,et al.  Reliability Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Slabs Under Explosive Loading , 2001 .

[34]  B. Hoffman.  Radicalization and Subversion: Al Qaeda and the 7 July 2005 Bombings and the 2006 Airline Bombing Plot , 2009 .

[35]  Thomas Hegghammer.  Should I Stay or Should I Go? Explaining Variation in Western Jihadists' Choice between Domestic and Foreign Fighting , 2013, American Political Science Review.

[36]  Mark G. Stewart,et al.  The effects of explosive blast load variability on safety hazard and damage risks for monolithic window glazing , 2009 .

[37]  Mark G. Stewart.  Integration of uncertainty modelling, structural reliability and decision theory to provide optimal blast protection to infrastructure , 2012 .

[38]  Risa A. Brooks.  Muslim “Homegrown” Terrorism in the United States: How Serious Is the Threat? , 2011, International Security.

[39]  Michael Kenney,et al.  “Dumb” Yet Deadly: Local Knowledge and Poor Tradecraft Among Islamist Militants in Britain and Spain , 2010 .

[40]  Mette Eilstrup-Sangiovanni,et al.  Assessing the Dangers of Illicit Networks: Why al-Qaida May Be Less Threatening Than Many Think , 2008, International Security.

[41]  Russell Lundberg.  Comparing Homeland Security Risks Using a Deliberative Risk Ranking Methodology , 2013 .